Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a890895d30a9f9c6afea5e9fc17b73a917d7898a453aa17583bf848cb68169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $232,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7659…be7bbacked No | 3c | 7,817$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 7c | 5,623$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.43 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…4624backed No | 2c | 5,531$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 6c | 5,194$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.27 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked Yes | 75c | 4,687$3,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 4,606$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 7c | 4,367$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,275$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 21c | 4,092$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 24c | 3,759$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 74c | 2,998$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.26 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4735…ed50backed No | 2c | 2,670$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed No | 24c | 2,461$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…9930backed No | 2c | 2,216$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 76c | 1,883$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed No | 24c | 1,802$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 75c | 1,728$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed No | 1c | 1,650$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 20c | 1,502$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 33c | 1,439$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,410$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 1,395$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 18c | 1,390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked No | 1c | 1,310$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 1c | 1,249$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…ff9cbacked No | 2c | 1,195$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed No | 1c | 1,192$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed No | 42c | 1,187$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 1,186$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,118$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked No | 24c | 1,106$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 1,054$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 29c | 1,044$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…e23cbacked No | 3c | 1,028$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 1,027$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.9 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 24c | 1,025$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 76c | 1,020$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 76c | 1,014$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 76c | 981$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 979.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 76c | 946$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 2c | 945.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 31c | 934.02$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.98 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes | 76c | 916$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 24c | 902$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 23c | 898$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 74c | 894.03$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 76c | 872$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 15c | 868$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…65d5backed No | 2c | 823.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…0f39backed No | 1c | 817.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 16c | 807$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 1c | 785.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 78c | 773.15$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 2c | 742.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 76c | 736$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7842backed No | 1c | 734.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 15c | 733$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 76c | 732$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…561dbacked Yes | 52c | 731.61$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked No | 24c | 726$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed No | 27c | 716$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 76c | 713$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 23c | 708$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed Yes | 72c | 696.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 24c | 696$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 2c | 683$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 24c | 670$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 76c | 637$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 77c | 630$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 24c | 627$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 24c | 624$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 13c | 621.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 24c | 608$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 23c | 603$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 76c | 594$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 24c | 592$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 76c | 585$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 25c | 581$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No | 24c | 562$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 21c | 550$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed Yes | 75c | 548$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 24c | 534$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 76c | 526$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed No | 15c | 516$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked No | 15c | 511$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…f582backed No | 25c | 511$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 72c | 500$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 64c | 498.59$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 76c | 474$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 24c | 473$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes | 76c | 473$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked Yes | 76c | 468$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 16c | 460$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 24c | 451$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 77c | 444.47$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 73c | 443$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed No | 26c | 430.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,250 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.