Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98206f66a5ce725b00ec898863344af7c443ec6f12271857f21b7ba56b9e076a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6819…1bfcbacked No | 2c | 9,981$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…ccbdbacked No | 1c | 5,423$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 1c | 4,354$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,335$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 3,434$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf9…4947backed No | 0c | 3,044$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 9c | 2,174$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 2,103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…edabbacked No | 1c | 1,943$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 1,804$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked No | 1c | 1,749$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed No | 1c | 1,637$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 1,494$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…e23cbacked No | 1c | 1,156$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…6f61backed No | 11c | 926.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 904.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 832.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 3c | 715.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 687.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 656.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 3c | 650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed No | 16c | 416.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 3c | 410.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed No | 3c | 374.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…46bbbacked No | 5c | 299.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 257.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed No | 9c | 107.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…9970backed No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,250 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.