Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7df50b1cb428cfa5318431f7108d893d89acfdcc1815949679b779392c510a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 8,505$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 76c | 2,220$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 78c | 2,133$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.19 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 9c | 2,122$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 25c | 2,087$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.41 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 14c | 1,854$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 14c | 1,842$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 17c | 1,737$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 12c | 1,589$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 35c | 1,501$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 60c | 1,469$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…db3fbacked No | 17c | 1,468$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 13c | 1,405$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 1,395$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7659…be7bbacked No | 38c | 1,329$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 21c | 1,054$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 30c | 997.79$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.93 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 21c | 988.39$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…ebb8backed No | 21c | 907.28$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 71c | 862.5$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 7c | 831.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 39c | 799.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 15c | 784.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…e23cbacked No | 12c | 719.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 22c | 709.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…cd11backed No | 5c | 706.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 20c | 686.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…c970backed Yes | 73c | 684.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…2c6dbacked No | 10c | 675.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 73c | 644$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.34 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 51c | 620$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 47c | 603$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.59 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 53c | 603$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 25c | 598.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 46c | 592$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 79c | 573.59$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 47c | 560$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378b…caffbacked No | 25c | 525.34$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 25c | 523.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 31c | 520$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.93 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 503.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…0f39backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 53c | 474$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 53c | 454$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 46c | 414$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…9930backed No | 27c | 413.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 9c | 404$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…ff9cbacked No | 8c | 398.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 47c | 395$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 53c | 395$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 15c | 392.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 54c | 391$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 6c | 389.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No | 49c | 388$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 52c | 384$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 48c | 384$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 47c | 368$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed No | 15c | 350$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 15c | 350$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked No | 9c | 334$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 50c | 310$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes | 50c | 310$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 24c | 300.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 35c | 286.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 5c | 273.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 64c | 270$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 269.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79da…7742backed Yes | 77c | 260.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 54c | 253$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 62c | 244.88$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 46c | 244$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 54c | 244$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 48c | 243$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 52c | 243$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 49c | 232$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 50c | 215$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed No | 53c | 215$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 23c | 202.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed No | 54c | 201$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.58per pick | 24cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…25febacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 20c | 197.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf367…7944backed No | 26c | 195.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 9c | 188$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 10c | 185.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed Yes | 61c | 180.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed Yes | 79c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 177.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 31c | 175.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 22cpaid | +237.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 68c | 174.83$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…11dbbacked No | 16c | 165.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 164.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 54c | 161$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 53c | 159$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 47c | 159$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,250 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.