Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0a1223b8097da6f2bd1ffb5f92ce6a080eddda009a673ef9c62e082e9ad819b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 28c | 12,405$3,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,950.24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,554$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 55c | 4,222$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,313.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 65c | 4,037$2,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 30c | 3,673$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 4c | 3,100$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 2,917$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.45 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 66c | 2,757$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 56c | 2,660$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 39c | 2,079$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 36c | 1,739$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed Yes | 30c | 1,683$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 78c | 1,650$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.84 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…0f2dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,503$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked No | 65c | 1,486$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 73c | 1,435$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 56c | 1,418$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.24 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…2c6dbacked No | 68c | 1,377$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked No | 77c | 1,350$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 28c | 1,266$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 73c | 1,118$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 23c | 1,064$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 1,053$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked No | 66c | 1,035$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 30c | 1,023$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 33c | 1,022$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…4acbbacked No | 76c | 973.04$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 37c | 943$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 73c | 938.81$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…ebb8backed Yes | 34c | 937.22$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 39c | 930$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 29c | 900$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 888$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 18c | 879$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…52efbacked Yes | 34c | 875.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 30c | 749$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 18c | 731$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 31c | 726$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 724.99$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 52c | 722.18$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.39 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 63c | 711.81$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…561dbacked No | 71c | 707.49$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 69c | 662.08$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 53c | 650$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.61 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed Yes | 76c | 640$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 68c | 634.99$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 76c | 625$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 33c | 610$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked No | 24c | 610$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked No | 61c | 601$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…385bbacked Yes | 78c | 600$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 24c | 595$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…de5ebacked Yes | 35c | 574.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed Yes | 76c | 553.22$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…6190backed Yes | 23c | 549.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 45c | 543$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed Yes | 30c | 542$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 20c | 517$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 38c | 513.45$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 501.21$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 15c | 495.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 19c | 490$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f180backed Yes | 56c | 488.97$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…0470backed Yes | 37c | 481.03$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…0089backed Yes | 59c | 473.12$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 18c | 473$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed No | 16c | 469$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 39c | 455.03$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.39 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 70c | 432$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5178…06debacked Yes | 28c | 416.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed No | 73c | 412.17$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 71c | 408.86$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164a…1526backed Yes | 41c | 405.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 78c | 405.29$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 33c | 403.4$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 8c | 398.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…e4a1backed No | 15c | 398.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked Yes | 18c | 393.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +330.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 78c | 378.57$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 13c | 366.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ffa5backed Yes | 30c | 353.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 353.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 17c | 353$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed Yes | 28c | 352.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed No | 61c | 329$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked Yes | 22c | 317.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 30c | 312$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 33c | 309.29$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.55 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 73c | 285.42$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked No | 75c | 283.9$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…11dbbacked No | 51c | 282.63$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 9c | 281$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 27c | 278.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 79c | 252$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87a…f850backed Yes | 26c | 251.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 70c | 250$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 74c | 250$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,250 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.