Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x584370be4f2fb2be211cc51b9a6c87caaabbafc4a98088222df6f786841546ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $241,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x932f…2cd8backed Yes | 2c | 8,985$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 8,905$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.04 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 3c | 8,842$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 71c | 7,816$5,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…0f2dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,928$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 77c | 4,812$3,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…eeaabacked Yes | 37c | 4,037$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,016$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 74c | 3,596$2,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.9 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 37c | 3,464$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 17c | 3,150$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…49cbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,896$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…ebb8backed Yes | 26c | 2,702$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 17c | 2,666$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.07 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…dc57backed Yes | 9c | 2,274$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 65c | 1,966$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 44c | 1,773$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…163bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,763$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 58c | 1,715$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 12c | 1,675$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 59c | 1,582$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 64c | 1,497$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed No | 56c | 1,447$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed Yes | 11c | 1,444$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,420$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.21 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed No | 24c | 1,371$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 22c | 1,361$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 52c | 1,303$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 44c | 1,202$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 45c | 1,190$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3314…a8c7backed Yes | 25c | 1,188$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 48c | 1,156$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 44c | 1,150$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 28c | 1,133$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 41c | 1,103$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…addebacked Yes | 10c | 1,082$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,074$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 63c | 1,052$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.37 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 76c | 1,052$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,050$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 41c | 1,041$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 57c | 1,034$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,010$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…5889backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed No | 63c | 999.96$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 43c | 997$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 12c | 995$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 32c | 990$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 52c | 988$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 72c | 965.73$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed Yes | 15c | 912.35$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed No | 73c | 888$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 27c | 888$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 55c | 887.98$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 34c | 876.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 19c | 865.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 48c | 864$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…bd1fbacked Yes | 34c | 833.49$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…3337backed Yes | 28c | 813.38$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 19c | 788$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 24c | 785$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 76c | 780$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 36c | 777$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked No | 73c | 763$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…71b7backed Yes | 26c | 744.81$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 77c | 743.08$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 76c | 741$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…0089backed Yes | 35c | 729.31$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 705.85$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.34 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 36c | 697$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3f…71efbacked Yes | 42c | 692.26$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 78c | 652$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 53c | 642$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 68c | 634$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 22c | 610$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 55c | 609$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 23c | 603.35$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked Yes | 19c | 596$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 591.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 24c | 567$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 27c | 567$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked No | 56c | 559$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 55c | 553$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 76c | 502$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1b…ddbdbacked Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…52efbacked Yes | 40c | 497.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4297…3cf3backed Yes | 5c | 494.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 22c | 489$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1164…941fbacked Yes | 46c | 483.17$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed No | 26c | 471$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 3c | 467.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No | 72c | 465$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 57c | 460$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 48c | 460$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 27c | 459$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 24c | 458$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 76c | 456$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 72c | 451$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 48c | 446$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 29c | 441.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,250 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.