TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1326…d13d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Music at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+99.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.87
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.22
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$565Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$159.28
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$414
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$213.9
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.3
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+244.8%+$496.29
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+566.7%+$193.8
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$361.49
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+42.9%+$88.8
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+426.3%+$487.62
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$493.17
Joe Kent charged by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.94
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$603Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$223.02
Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.83
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.46
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.26
Khamenei public appearance by February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$51.51
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+112.8%+$222.07
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+117.4%+$56.7
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+124.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$368.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MIA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+80.5%+$34.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$255.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$104.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$176
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$944Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$943.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$308.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$264.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.