China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb115de5476741ec60696e6f08ed2ca791f3156b324bebe191f71e1198d38199b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 54c | 801$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 46c | 801$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 44c | 584.77$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…28afbacked Yes | 16c | 317.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 13c | 179.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 143.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 20c | 117.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed No | 34c | 85.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed Yes | 13c | 77.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 67c | 76.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…91a8backed Yes | 16c | 67.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 47c | 65.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…fe77backed No | 46c | 64.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 40c | 42.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 36.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked No | 69c | 35.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a77…c39bbacked Yes | 54c | 34.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 51c | 30.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…cbffbacked No | 55c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…4c92backed No | 75c | 17.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?Yes won
- Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.