China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c20fdbe2e58d1e4e898123e9befe496d5bbe077530e05c6a4f6c8edba460538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8704…3b94backed No | 1c | 1,823$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…f6babacked No | 9c | 1,748$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 8c | 812.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 78c | 630.25$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 69c | 578.3$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 2c | 505.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 39c | 441.89$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 53c | 321.5$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5334…1a3fbacked Yes | 68c | 314.46$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 15c | 291.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 66c | 239.63$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 49c | 229.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 29c | 225.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 6c | 207.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.74 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…a93cbacked No | 17c | 154.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…3f89backed No | 11c | 113.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 15c | 103.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 78.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5332…baafbacked Yes | 18c | 73.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…6d5abacked Yes | 79c | 37.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 62c | 32.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed Yes | 69c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 54c | 26.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.