China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07d7eaa9e0abcb9e0ee1997bf5aeacd3f6a5482a5299ee09d5679b6584c94ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0d0…e5dbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 17c | 719$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 17c | 681$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 17c | 671$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 17c | 609.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 15c | 579$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 8c | 466.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 60c | 409.1$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 360.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd1…0e13backed Yes | 25c | 358.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 174.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…f84cbacked Yes | 57c | 174.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 36c | 166.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 16c | 148.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 75c | 139.23$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1504…0e93backed Yes | 9c | 118.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…190dbacked Yes | 14c | 89.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 87.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 72.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…5e00backed Yes | 33c | 60.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 33c | 59.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5332…baafbacked Yes | 22c | 57.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784e…6029backed Yes | 35c | 56.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 53.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 48.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 74c | 48.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 40c | 38.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 35c | 30.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245a…d2c8backed Yes | 38c | 28.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?Yes won
- Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.