China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a3677ebcd81bda6278fb1db323b1d366feffaacd3c00f1fbdf2ab20d69971e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 71c | 2,164$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 22c | 1,575$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,222$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 49c | 982$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes | 32c | 822$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 49c | 799$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…c2f0backed Yes | 37c | 775.36$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 66c | 761.15$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 49c | 760$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 29c | 739$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed Yes | 17c | 736$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 29c | 713$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 29c | 712$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed Yes | 51c | 680$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 51c | 668$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 51c | 661$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 78c | 657$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 48c | 655$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 31c | 650.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…3f89backed Yes | 5c | 643.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 78c | 639$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 52c | 637$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 51c | 620$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 47c | 579.79$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…ed0fbacked Yes | 54c | 572.78$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 68c | 419$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 68c | 403$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 49c | 387.39$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 41c | 386.05$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 51c | 337$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 62c | 311$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…5076backed No | 47c | 310.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 13c | 298.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…bb99backed Yes | 5c | 296.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…74e4backed Yes | 44c | 292.08$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 72c | 288.78$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 78c | 279$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd1…0e13backed Yes | 28c | 272.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed No | 59c | 253.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 252.75$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…f84cbacked Yes | 5c | 226.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 207.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 204.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…fe77backed Yes | 23c | 192.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed Yes | 23c | 186.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…a93cbacked Yes | 12c | 179.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 178.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 21c | 177.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 36c | 170.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 62c | 168.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 147.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…d04bbacked Yes | 52c | 127.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…3a47backed No | 68c | 120.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 113.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…d0f4backed Yes | 39c | 110.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 33c | 103.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 98.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 50c | 97.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 29c | 96.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4529…d10abacked Yes | 31c | 91.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…1030backed Yes | 45c | 87.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 42c | 86.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…3829backed No | 74c | 81.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 69c | 79.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…5038backed Yes | 25c | 79.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…28afbacked Yes | 26c | 77.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…d6f6backed Yes | 23c | 75.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…39f2backed Yes | 26c | 74.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed No | 73c | 74.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43b…3f86backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 62c | 65.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…556bbacked Yes | 35c | 64.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…9d45backed Yes | 20c | 62.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 61.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 58.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 54c | 55.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b1…3af2backed Yes | 21c | 54.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…0393backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 49.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed Yes | 36c | 47.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes | 55c | 45.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…fce3backed No | 49c | 44.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…3ffcbacked No | 73c | 43.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 42.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…3348backed Yes | 29c | 41.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 36.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…de91backed Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…f3d7backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…cfb5backed No | 56c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6efc…f1f5backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…758ebacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…ee04backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…9fcebacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba4…2282backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 55c | 26.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…da2ebacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfff…f4c2backed No | 78c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?Yes won
- Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.