China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdd75145c5810f9c65f9d93d0649780cbb87ea70064d6985d3b743bbd0e67b23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 45c | 2,231$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 43c | 1,516$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…f6babacked Yes | 4c | 1,219$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 3c | 1,140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +211%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 15c | 935.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 12c | 730$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 78c | 726.9$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 12c | 718$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 10c | 690.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 52c | 673.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 44c | 545.22$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6637…f84cbacked Yes | 22c | 454.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 436.02$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 52c | 365.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed Yes | 52c | 365.5$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked No | 57c | 357.7$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 16c | 341$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 46c | 338.52$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 76c | 307.38$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 7c | 276.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 4c | 251.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…d0f4backed Yes | 24c | 251.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…09afbacked Yes | 12c | 233.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 224.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 35c | 222.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 6c | 195.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed No | 58c | 188.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 179.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 54c | 140.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…1d21backed Yes | 40c | 140.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 126.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 56c | 124.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…2174backed No | 62c | 109.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 14c | 102.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed No | 36c | 82.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c22…0fc8backed Yes | 61c | 81.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 37c | 79.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 29c | 79.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…72d7backed No | 65c | 77.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…ed6fbacked Yes | 46c | 76.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 57c | 74.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 72.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…79ebbacked Yes | 16c | 70.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed No | 67c | 59.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 58.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…6d5abacked Yes | 45c | 54.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 52.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed Yes | 45c | 49.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 30c | 44.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…819fbacked Yes | 75c | 39.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…ee71backed Yes | 55c | 37.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01bc…6c9fbacked No | 38c | 37.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 64c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 35.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 50c | 31.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 38c | 29.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…d0dcbacked Yes | 51c | 28.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf611…e852backed Yes | 56c | 26.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 68c | 22.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?this page
- Will Hong Kong have 190mm or more of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 160-170mm of precipitation in April?Yes won
- Will Hong Kong have between 170-180mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have between 180-190mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.