TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe2a8…9b29

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
139
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST1838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17.7
Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+31.6%+$19.92
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$50.17
Will Marshall Curry - SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$331.2
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$34.58
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$53.36
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$20.3
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35.55
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$157.4
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$48.18
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$128.39
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+284.6%+$424.02
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+104.1%+$253.98
Will "Cover-Up" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$147.42
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$21.3
Will Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold (Jay Kelly) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+42.9%+$21
Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$103.32
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.67
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.53
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.68
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$61.44
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.89
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$555Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$554.66
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$567Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+97.2%+$551.1
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.56
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$177.94
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$545Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$523.81
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.8
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50.75
Will the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.96
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$186.42
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+66.7%+$108.4
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$64.39
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$58.08
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$587.64
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$280.98
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.53
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$706Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$292.3
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.16
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.95
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.68
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.23
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.4
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.09
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+284.6%+$104.34
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+96.1%+$14.21
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.1%+$96.22
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$69
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$23.52
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.25
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.75
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.1
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$41.14
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+400%+$41.6
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$28.83
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$327.36
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+104.1%+$159.63
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$71.1
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$565.6
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15.08
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$65.57
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+112.8%+$68.9
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$71.55
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+108.3%+$44.72
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$571Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$548.8
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$354.54
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+85.5%+$361.89
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.75
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+25%+$69.8
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$99.6
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$35.81
Odds of Newsom Dem Pres Nominee over 40% by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$19.2
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+28.2%+$12.98
Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+233.3%+$69.3
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+59.7%+$137.63
Will Anca Alexandrescu get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+29.9%+$44.62
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$60.32
All 13 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be between 70 and 80?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$68.64
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$25.48
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$154.57
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+376.2%+$61.62
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+428.4%+$332.41
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+56.3%+$81.72
Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20.86
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$36.63
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$161.82
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+92.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+182.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+156.4%+$88.45
Will Texas make the College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$27.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Howard Bison vs. UNCW Seahawksbacked UNCW Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.5
North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)backed South Carolina State Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+142.7%+$207.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+82.1%+$32.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$258.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dundee United FC win on 2026-02-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+69.5%+$527.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$412.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+49.3%+$66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul Break 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+29.9%+$86.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$51.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.