Movies · resolved market
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70bb344e52becb0c526523fb30d21235a1ae734f0b378e12a5e0a3d11a852001
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 44c | 3,758$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.55 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed No | 43c | 1,444$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…2d97backed Yes | 10c | 876$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 56c | 809$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 50c | 707$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 33c | 640$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.58 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 62c | 582.48$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.46 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 57c | 573$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.61 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 57c | 530$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 44c | 487$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.72 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 55c | 482$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 55c | 419$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.45 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 49cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 45c | 409$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.95 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 50c | 393$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 42c | 357.6$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 57c | 341$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 23c | 332.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.27 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 44c | 322$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.32 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 317.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.89 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 50c | 292.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 45c | 251$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked Yes | 53c | 249$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…d9ffbacked Yes | 32c | 210.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 69c | 208.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 199.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 59c | 195.87$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcb…aba7backed No | 51c | 163$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 44c | 156$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 56c | 156$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97c…5f49backed No | 51c | 154$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…6c4cbacked No | 51c | 153$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…fa6abacked No | 51c | 153$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 31c | 150.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 50c | 137.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 41c | 132.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 32c | 128.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…5119backed Yes | 49c | 128$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…9e68backed Yes | 49c | 127$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…6b9abacked Yes | 49c | 124$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed Yes | 58c | 122.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 62c | 118$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…7715backed Yes | 49c | 118$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…4e29backed Yes | 49c | 118$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…c2aebacked Yes | 49c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 69c | 114.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 32c | 101.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 100.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 92.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 41c | 88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 60c | 80.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 42c | 71.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c7…da36backed Yes | 31c | 64.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 62.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 59c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…d520backed No | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 73c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 37.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 33.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca9…fd39backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Yes won
- Will Jessica Williams win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Kathryn Hahn win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Kristen Wiig win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.