Movies · resolved market
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0044dd6bc7e3738ade92e7fdcc2a9819c828605f7af54bcbf4c7b85f1567f64d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 59c | 1,247$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.96 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 34c | 975$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 37c | 729$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.08 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 63c | 729$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 66c | 723$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked Yes | 35c | 684$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 37c | 642$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.53 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 63c | 642$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 42c | 615$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 37c | 560$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed No | 65c | 551$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 34c | 500$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 58c | 467$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 70c | 399$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 66c | 368$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 63c | 365$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.86 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 32c | 333.61$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 37c | 317$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 63c | 317$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 30c | 275$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 39c | 265$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed No | 66c | 252$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 66c | 250.04$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 44c | 229.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 63c | 229$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked Yes | 37c | 229$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 70c | 214.56$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 26c | 204.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 63c | 195$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes | 69c | 194.08$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…5f84backed Yes | 45c | 187$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…404fbacked Yes | 45c | 186$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…bab6backed Yes | 45c | 183$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…c024backed Yes | 45c | 183$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e8…ccb4backed Yes | 45c | 177$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4397…4513backed Yes | 45c | 177$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…5aacbacked Yes | 45c | 171$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…415dbacked Yes | 45c | 171$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…fbd1backed No | 55c | 151$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb80…6498backed No | 55c | 148$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bb…0c0ebacked No | 55c | 148$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 58c | 148$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…9e8fbacked No | 55c | 146$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…7716backed No | 55c | 145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…a902backed No | 55c | 145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b25…e5cbbacked No | 55c | 143$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 54c | 139.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc9…5572backed No | 55c | 139$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3a…9f07backed No | 55c | 138$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 65c | 133$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 66c | 132$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76cd…b4b6backed No | 59c | 132$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 30c | 124$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 46c | 106.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 88.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 87.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 86.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 58c | 86.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 27c | 84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed No | 60c | 79.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 61c | 47.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 57c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 42.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 43c | 40.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 49c | 32.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 40c | 29.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 26.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes | 40c | 25.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 61c | 18.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Jessica Williams win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Kathryn Hahn win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Kristen Wiig win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.