TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0d05…305b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
160
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 60 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$126.42
Will "Sex" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$249.91
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$204.75
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.42
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+34%+$55.88
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.78
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$94.75
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.47
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$27.2
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$55.87
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$198.76
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+127.3%+$87.36
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$90.3
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$302.68
Will between 9 and 12 participants make a final pair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+78.6%+$71.28
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$38.57
Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+56.3%+$23.76
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$206.9
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.6%+$16.56
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$26.08
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+97.6%+$309.2
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$117.67
Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$39.6
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$106.26
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+354.9%+$383.07
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT2123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.22
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.42
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.52
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.44
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.4
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.64
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$364.8
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.76
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.24
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+376.2%+$282.82
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+376.2%+$141.41
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+257.1%+$39.6
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$202.1
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$124.8
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.59
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+270.4%+$846.07
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.04
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$142.52
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.55
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$18.2
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$17.64
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$129.83
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.36
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$137.7
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.66
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$159.84
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$18.92
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$21.85
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$362.34
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.14
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.96
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$562Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.8%+$240.43
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$202.62
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.55
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$80.63
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$61.69
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$99.82
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$672Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$274.63
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$397.38
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+75.8%+$45.26
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.12
Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$231.84
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+100%+$24.5
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$165.79
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$16.07
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$324.12
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$91.08
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+177.8%+$150.4
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$35.03
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+37.2%+$35.76
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+88.7%+$143.35
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$105.63
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.65
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$762Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$762.18
Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.49
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$56.11
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$325.6
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$25.44
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$116.62
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$596.84
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.5
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.62
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$36.66
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.43
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.58
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$68.64
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$279.72
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.65
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.78
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+188.2%+$102.52
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$54.05
Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$244.08
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+40.8%+$187.63
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$30.94
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+81.8%+$29.25
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$14.28
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$16.82
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+96.1%+$155.33
All 12 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+89.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$217.91
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$274.05
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+56.3%+$191.88
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$17.1
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+222.6%+$375.36
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95.13
Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+185.7%+$54.6
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+222.6%+$71.07
Over 15,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+165.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+179.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick18cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)backed Southern Illinois Salukis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$618.12
Texas Southern Tigers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsbacked Texas Southern Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$126.1
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+47.1%+$41.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$146.3
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$161.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+108.3%+$541.84
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$216.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+62.1%+$184.61
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$115.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$213.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$68.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.