AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a2503c0fe156668174ceeb8a3c0aaca9d071602f7cca0600a2830cef8dda473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 6c | 10,299$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.53 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 10c | 2,570$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.22 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 5c | 2,304$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,977$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.92 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 9c | 1,591$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.84 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,510$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.45 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 11c | 1,235$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.31 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,178$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 11c | 888$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 7c | 860.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 12c | 839.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed Yes | 12c | 814$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 690.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 6c | 663.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…66adbacked Yes | 8c | 644.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 633.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 630.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…8865backed Yes | 5c | 622.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 5c | 615.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 11c | 593$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 12c | 535$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…e608backed Yes | 4c | 532.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 8c | 531$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…b7d3backed Yes | 12c | 516$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 482.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…0faabacked Yes | 5c | 474.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 11c | 447$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…51e1backed Yes | 5c | 401.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 12c | 372$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 8c | 354$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…2873backed Yes | 10c | 350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…79d6backed No | 80c | 345$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 8c | 343$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e63ebacked Yes | 15c | 342.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 339.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e9…ef4dbacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 308.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 20c | 296$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 294.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 8c | 277$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 268.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 255.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 254.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 8c | 254$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 236.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 73c | 234$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 9c | 231.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…3ddbbacked Yes | 15c | 226.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…8883backed Yes | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 8c | 213$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 8c | 205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 17c | 201.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 20c | 198$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cad…d35cbacked Yes | 28c | 197.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 8c | 193$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 9c | 193$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 12c | 191$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 8c | 186$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 8c | 178$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked Yes | 11c | 174$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 20c | 173$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 12c | 172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 170.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 80c | 161$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 23c | 160$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed Yes | 8c | 139$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 8c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 8c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 131.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked Yes | 39c | 128.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 14c | 116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 24c | 110.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 62.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f3…bda5backed Yes | 25c | 59.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b51…5868backed Yes | 30c | 56.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 33c | 36.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?this page
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.