AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c5528f8210677f63b91a5935e91b04ec8c286fa61bde3ad99fa2ac407dabfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf67…d8f5backed Yes | 57c | 14,900$8,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,407 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615a…ec86backed No | 43c | 10,115$4,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…2ea4backed No | 43c | 9,095$3,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,910.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…9675backed Yes | 57c | 7,335$4,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,154.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 5c | 4,640$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.11 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 7c | 3,894$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.11 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 20c | 3,196$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ad…5fbebacked No | 43c | 3,025$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,878$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 1c | 2,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…5120backed No | 2c | 2,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked No | 1c | 2,022$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…9f96backed No | 6c | 1,837$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 1,427$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…057cbacked No | 10c | 1,239$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 1,090$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 4c | 1,039$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f58ebacked No | 10c | 1,035$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked No | 3c | 906.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 3c | 887.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 826.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 59c | 750$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 678.86$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…9b9fbacked No | 3c | 650.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 620.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 8c | 599.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…9522backed No | 3c | 551.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…89f3backed Yes | 71c | 478.5$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…16c8backed No | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3685backed No | 14c | 427.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 5c | 401.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 26c | 349.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed No | 29c | 348.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed Yes | 72c | 310$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 8c | 214$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…ef85backed Yes | 62c | 200.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Yes | 71c | 198.7$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 6c | 192.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 154.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 9c | 145.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…d337backed Yes | 70c | 142.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 137.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed Yes | 76c | 131.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked No | 27c | 119.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…0c7fbacked No | 34c | 116.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81bf…6a27backed Yes | 74c | 108.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 75c | 106.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 28c | 91.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…3757backed Yes | 70c | 71.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85d…d189backed Yes | 78c | 70.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 55.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…ad6bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 72c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…6229backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…c42cbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ed…ce73backed Yes | 77c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 68c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?this page
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?No won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.