AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x881964470b6ac5eafbcb2b20f7fafa60badec6b57662623819de55e803f4abcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $482,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $462,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 546 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddb0…591fbacked Yes | 26c | 18,450$4,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,797 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…811dbacked No | 4c | 18,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2d58backed Yes | 38c | 11,045$4,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,195.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7269…fc16backed Yes | 38c | 10,770$4,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,092.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 34c | 9,647$3,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,261.88 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…a273backed Yes | 44c | 8,970$3,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,922.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 50c | 8,613$4,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,270.97 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked No | 45c | 8,452$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,689.66 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…40e1backed No | 74c | 7,700$5,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…c411backed No | 62c | 7,396$4,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…c2a5backed No | 62c | 7,252$4,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,756.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb2…1607backed No | 62c | 7,167$4,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 37c | 6,730$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.96 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…70fbbacked No | 74c | 5,500$4,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 9c | 5,397$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.66 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066d…e6e6backed Yes | 64c | 5,291$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…408cbacked No | 74c | 5,250$3,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…a693backed No | 62c | 5,000$3,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 35c | 4,360$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.83 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 42c | 4,086$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 56c | 3,850$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.57 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…057cbacked No | 43c | 3,504$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 46c | 3,446$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.63 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 14c | 3,444$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.54 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 19c | 2,983$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.06 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…417cbacked Yes | 38c | 2,834$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 68c | 2,821$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.04 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,506.04 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…003dbacked No | 47c | 2,500$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 69c | 2,301$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.37 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 2,300$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 66c | 2,234$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed No | 34c | 2,216$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 24c | 2,063$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.02 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 30c | 2,062$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.37 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 51c | 1,933$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed No | 63c | 1,857$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 9c | 1,750$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.44 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 33c | 1,741$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.19 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…3ddbbacked Yes | 39c | 1,733$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…554abacked Yes | 38c | 1,664$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 51c | 1,600$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.64 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed No | 50c | 1,566$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4144…b82abacked Yes | 39c | 1,545$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 1,433$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.35 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 55c | 1,429$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 70c | 1,424$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,412$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked No | 73c | 1,366$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…e608backed Yes | 2c | 1,313$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…e2c5backed No | 59c | 1,298$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.62 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed No | 70c | 1,297$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4a…25b2backed Yes | 39c | 1,290$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 17c | 1,282$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 68c | 1,185$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 64c | 1,173$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 61c | 1,164$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…fec1backed No | 64c | 1,116$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed No | 74c | 1,100$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…d5f9backed Yes | 50c | 1,100$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,098$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,075$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.96 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked No | 64c | 1,061$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 1,059$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.59 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed No | 57c | 1,050$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 64c | 1,045$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 35c | 1,022$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 77c | 1,013$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 1,004$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.82 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cad…d35cbacked No | 35c | 1,001$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 37c | 992.05$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.13 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed Yes | 36c | 987$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed Yes | 45c | 971$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 36c | 969$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 962.3$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.21 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 67c | 941$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…0fc3backed Yes | 54c | 930.89$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…4d78backed No | 63c | 929.99$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 61c | 927.36$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.06 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…bb89backed Yes | 67c | 922.24$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed No | 64c | 916$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 67c | 915$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 35c | 901.49$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 55c | 890$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 77c | 880$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 56c | 871.66$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.06 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 66c | 861$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 32c | 853.24$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 19c | 850.95$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 35c | 839.59$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.92 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 33c | 823$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 45c | 818$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 39c | 817.24$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.61 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…df88backed No | 62c | 810$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 32c | 799$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked No | 61c | 791.19$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.62 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed No | 77c | 789$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed No | 65c | 777$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 37c | 770$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?this page
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.