TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2110…5850

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
116
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT6048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.04
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,456.87
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.11
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$831Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+322.3%+$2,676.66
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$156
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.87
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.94
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$255
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$185
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$275
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$349.98
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.33
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.63
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.32
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$128.55
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.25
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$533.5
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.86
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.99
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.99
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$340
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$589.99
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,928Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,928
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$256
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,413Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,412.56
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.93
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+331.6%+$875.88
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.07
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$430.4
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.71
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18,057Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+77.8%+$14,041.88
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$735Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$764.97
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15,925Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$5,205.55
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$162
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,086.99
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,381Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,381.3
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.76
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+467%+$626.21
Will Starmer say "Iran" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$37
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$5,815Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,814.62
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+69.5%+$287
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$247.08
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$31.5
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+30.9%+$47.16
Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+65.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.4%+$194
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+104.6%+$255.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$59.76
Will NVIDIA say "Trump" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$23.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$67.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.