TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$379,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$358,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $379,810 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No62c43,789$27,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,073.9214821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No65c20,246$13,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,242.7864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3578…d9febacked No1c16,031$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes32c14,799$4,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,112.6819531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No9c14,337$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.9521531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed No72c11,348$8,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,170.862347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick55cpaid+93.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes28c10,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,20022547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Yes47c10,000$4,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,312.331361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.24per pick37cpaid+114.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes32c10,000$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,811.218150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes37c9,087$3,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,684.057732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f9…a93bbacked Yes33c9,067$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,083.82137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No57c8,894$5,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,095.3412038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c92…ebd9backed Yes35c8,305$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,363.241275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+34.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No55c7,126$3,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,917.1610335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked Yes49c5,704$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.035954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No2c5,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed No51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96f4…edc5backed Yes45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7501540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1398…a875backed Yes56c4,448$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.57580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes32c4,299$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,923.0831241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8d…52f1backed Yes46c4,010$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.911625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-36%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No55c3,609$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.6151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f51…5e78backed No71c3,405$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No60c3,380$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,034.0122627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes78c3,209$2,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.961794.1%16 W · 1 L+7.3wins+0.43per pick51cpaid+118.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.992867.9%19 W · 9 L+5.8wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+23.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb959…709ebacked Yes51c2,953$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.631376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes52c2,908$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.795545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c2,755$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.335071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes43c2,669$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.325151%26 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes49c2,466$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.1315541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c2,404$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.3667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85ef…564fbacked Yes53c2,305$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.11136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes43c2,281$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.12560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No11c2,222$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.423452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd8…9d40backed No2c2,160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes45c2,087$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.3942818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f7…9057backed Yes30c1,940$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa92a…39bdbacked No54c1,842$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.121764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes50c1,750$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.992828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a14…eb29backed Yes36c1,685$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+240.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x493a…4d85backed Yes44c1,634$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.33875%6 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.47per pick28cpaid+123.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes43c1,624$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.9334440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes48c1,565$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.6512944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No58c1,510$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.3718929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked No23c1,500$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.9944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick16cpaid+284.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No19c1,478$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28030649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x883c…e1e0backed Yes50c1,468$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+125.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e5…af2cbacked Yes34c1,461$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+184.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes47c1,452$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.651258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b72…bb38backed No71c1,408$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+36%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8415625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes46c1,314$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.1135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2606…aaddbacked No8c1,250$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.812445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked No70c1,235$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.21812.5%1 W · 7 L-4.4wins-0.55per pick67cpaid-78.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd192…5569backed Yes49c1,214$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.014100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+90.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes47c1,200$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6365964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes34c1,176$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.688139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes48c1,129$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.982630.8%8 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick11cpaid+105.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Yes37c1,104$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.331546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes47c1,067$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.1738237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e1…960ebacked No52c1,028$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.03119.1%1 W · 10 L-5.5wins-0.50per pick59cpaid-54.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes32c1,024$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.4216553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82fb…da0ebacked Yes30c1,007$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.03933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7102653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+100.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4013…4d70backed No50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-62.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c931$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.634928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No54c898.02$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.517052.9%37 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No42c893.62$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.458927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked No71c880.51$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.1613650%68 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No58c857.21$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.6926138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a6c…741fbacked No60c838.59$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.463135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed No1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No68c723.01$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.0415626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d65…71c5backed Yes50c691.46$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.46475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fd8…ad3abacked Yes44c681.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+106.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes32c625$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4254533.3%15 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes46c601.77$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.574161%25 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes50c601.69$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.692065%13 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes47c572.74$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.5535355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c6c…73a6backed No53c569.85$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e53…9509backed Yes70c569.64$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+518.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c35…afa8backed Yes44c565.78$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.153751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes72c542.8$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.259040%36 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes32c505.88$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.4324224.4%59 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes49c501.94$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+65.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked No56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.993330.3%10 W · 23 L-11.0wins-0.33per pick64cpaid-57.6%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed No13c493.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.46041.7%25 W · 35 L+12.5wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+102.7%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x0979…0a51backed No69c482.96$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.24683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes41c482.41$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.2589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a9…c0c0backed Yes50c474$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+67.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d2…70dbbacked Yes49c467.06$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.21553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+49.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes45c446.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.097341.1%30 W · 43 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes32c422.5$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.710444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes30c416.67$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.6714325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc219…04fabacked Yes33c413$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.861650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0c…0ab8backed Yes42c405.48$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.481050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x898f…23f0backed No60c404.77$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.723647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20013348.1%64 W · 69 L+20.7wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+143.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.