Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e7e6199b1670c7f083fa22ee2bc53ff51d710a417fae70bb96b623e6f4c281c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $379,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $358,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $379,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 62c | 43,789$27,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,073.92 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 20,246$13,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,242.78 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 1c | 16,031$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 32c | 14,799$4,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,112.68 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 9c | 14,337$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.95 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 72c | 11,348$8,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,170.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 28c | 10,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Yes | 47c | 10,000$4,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,312.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 32c | 10,000$3,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,811.21 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 37c | 9,087$3,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,684.05 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…a93bbacked Yes | 33c | 9,067$2,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,083.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 57c | 8,894$5,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,095.34 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…ebd9backed Yes | 35c | 8,305$2,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,363.24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 55c | 7,126$3,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,917.16 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 49c | 5,704$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.03 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 2c | 5,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed No | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…edc5backed Yes | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1398…a875backed Yes | 56c | 4,448$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 32c | 4,299$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,923.08 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…52f1backed Yes | 46c | 4,010$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 55c | 3,609$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.61 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…5e78backed No | 71c | 3,405$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 60c | 3,380$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.01 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 78c | 3,209$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.96 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.99 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…709ebacked Yes | 51c | 2,953$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.63 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 52c | 2,908$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.79 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,755$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 43c | 2,669$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.32 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 49c | 2,466$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.13 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 2,404$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.36 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…564fbacked Yes | 53c | 2,305$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,281$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 11c | 2,222$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…9d40backed No | 2c | 2,160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 45c | 2,087$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.39 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f7…9057backed Yes | 30c | 1,940$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…39bdbacked No | 54c | 1,842$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,750$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a14…eb29backed Yes | 36c | 1,685$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x493a…4d85backed Yes | 44c | 1,634$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 43c | 1,624$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.93 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 48c | 1,565$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.65 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 58c | 1,510$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.37 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked No | 23c | 1,500$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 19c | 1,478$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…e1e0backed Yes | 50c | 1,468$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e5…af2cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,461$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc296…0f22backed Yes | 47c | 1,452$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…bb38backed No | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,314$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.11 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked No | 8c | 1,250$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…d25bbacked No | 70c | 1,235$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.4wins | -0.55per pick | 67cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…5569backed Yes | 49c | 1,214$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.01 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 34c | 1,176$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.68 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes | 48c | 1,129$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.98 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Yes | 37c | 1,104$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 47c | 1,067$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.17 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…960ebacked No | 52c | 1,028$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -5.5wins | -0.50per pick | 59cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,024$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.42 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…da0ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,007$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 931$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 54c | 898.02$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.51 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 893.62$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.4 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 71c | 880.51$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.16 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 857.21$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.69 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked No | 60c | 838.59$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.46 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 68c | 723.01$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.04 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…71c5backed Yes | 50c | 691.46$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…ad3abacked Yes | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 46c | 601.77$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.57 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes | 50c | 601.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.69 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 47c | 572.74$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.55 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…73a6backed No | 53c | 569.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…9509backed Yes | 70c | 569.64$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +518.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…afa8backed Yes | 44c | 565.78$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.15 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 72c | 542.8$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.25 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 32c | 505.88$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.43 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes | 49c | 501.94$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -11.0wins | -0.33per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 13c | 493.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…0a51backed No | 69c | 482.96$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 482.41$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.25 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…c0c0backed Yes | 50c | 474$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…70dbbacked Yes | 49c | 467.06$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 45c | 446.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.09 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 32c | 422.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.7 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 30c | 416.67$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.67 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked Yes | 33c | 413$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0c…0ab8backed Yes | 42c | 405.48$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…23f0backed No | 60c | 404.77$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.72 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.