Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15aa3c1259a716915e068a0d63c3885d2301d29e8982cbb1717ecb9b63d02d95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,093,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,109,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,093,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,730 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33ac…9334backed Yes | 12c | 600,000$75,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524,999.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 78c | 573,812$448,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448,612.26 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 78c | 245,787$191,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191,959.88 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…195abacked Yes | 34c | 146,875$50,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,875.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 3c | 125,540$4,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,361.06 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…28b3backed No | 74c | 107,000$78,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,882.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 0c | 99,352$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 10c | 93,582$9,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,262.72 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 16c | 92,351$14,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,672.04 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 31c | 78,000$23,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,105.25 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 23c | 72,412$16,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,812.09 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…1442backed Yes | 21c | 71,700$14,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,900.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 79c | 68,701$54,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,421.17 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 20c | 65,877$13,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,724.12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +447.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed No | 1c | 54,231$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.54 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 12c | 52,964$6,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,568.03 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 25c | 52,340$13,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,044.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 76c | 47,182$35,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,730.01 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d010backed Yes | 25c | 45,320$11,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,036.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 13cpaid | +425%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 45c | 43,000$19,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,608.15 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…64ddbacked No | 0c | 41,299$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 20c | 39,451$7,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,675.86 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 74c | 38,470$28,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,162.42 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 11c | 38,246$4,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,068.89 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 37,757$9,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,644.2 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes | 27c | 37,270$9,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,273.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 10c | 37,237$3,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,819.87 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 13c | 35,073$4,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,470.14 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 21c | 34,621$7,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,310.87 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…5734backed No | 1c | 34,489$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 13c | 34,000$4,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,430 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…16a3backed Yes | 27c | 33,067$8,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,292.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…11d5backed No | 79c | 32,943$26,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,024.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…d050backed Yes | 14c | 31,971$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,370.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Yes | 27c | 31,000$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,499.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 78c | 30,453$23,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,612.16 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 13c | 30,151$4,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,144.48 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 11c | 29,509$3,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,335.11 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 75c | 28,599$21,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,352.27 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 74c | 28,500$21,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,231.16 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…7caabacked Yes | 28c | 28,318$8,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,301.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa830…a26cbacked Yes | 10c | 28,167$2,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,348.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +899.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 78c | 27,828$21,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,726.78 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed Yes | 21c | 27,485$5,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,723.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…50e9backed No | 77c | 27,018$20,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,845.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 76c | 24,978$18,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,974.83 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes | 30c | 24,512$7,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,213.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 23c | 23,925$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,525.44 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…6d1fbacked Yes | 22c | 23,516$5,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,252.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddd…9407backed No | 80c | 22,769$18,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,194.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.9wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…ecd9backed No | 2c | 22,640$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…538ebacked Yes | 22c | 22,419$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,418.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +457.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 72c | 22,220$15,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,942.78 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 20c | 22,174$4,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,696.33 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 24c | 21,417$5,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,329.61 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…7835backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e647backed Yes | 16c | 19,160$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,160.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +318.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 28c | 19,090$5,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,660.4 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 70c | 18,881$13,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,669.76 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…c852backed No | 77c | 18,328$14,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,106.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 80c | 18,094$14,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,403.43 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 8c | 18,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,559.92 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked Yes | 9c | 17,954$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,303.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 22c | 17,825$3,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,839.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed No | 76c | 17,203$13,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,149.97 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…46b1backed No | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 19c | 16,945$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,750.51 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…f5e0backed Yes | 19c | 16,637$3,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,423.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 79c | 16,006$12,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,639.14 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 77c | 16,000$12,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,309.96 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e54…a908backed No | 6c | 15,643$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…7bd3backed No | 77c | 15,578$11,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,995.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 58c | 15,442$8,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,931.19 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 26c | 15,410$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,409.92 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 15,335$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…8b2abacked Yes | 26c | 15,213$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,212.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +287.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…4ebbbacked Yes | 22c | 15,199$3,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,821.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Yes | 29c | 15,000$4,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,700.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 14c | 15,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,900 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e1…f038backed Yes | 22c | 14,883$3,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,560.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 24c | 14,651$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,200.86 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 19c | 14,581$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,803.27 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0769…ef4bbacked Yes | 24c | 14,542$3,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,051.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 38c | 14,494$5,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,010.01 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 21c | 14,376$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,301.18 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…9740backed Yes | 9c | 14,331$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,084.42 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed Yes | 21c | 14,286$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,285.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7159…ccefbacked Yes | 18c | 14,136$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,638.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 23c | 13,893$3,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,761.43 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 80c | 13,829$11,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,059.32 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…b868backed No | 0c | 13,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 30c | 13,354$3,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,406 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…b149backed No | 80c | 13,260$10,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,570.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 77c | 12,970$9,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,965.26 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f9…2b16backed Yes | 24c | 12,791$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,690.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 12,534$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.47 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…91d8backed Yes | 19c | 12,297$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,949.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8a76backed Yes | 23c | 11,956$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,152.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…b0a4backed No | 73c | 11,804$8,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,614.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 77c | 11,676$8,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,990.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.