Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3488f31e6449f9803f99a8b5dd232c7ad883637f1c86e6953305a2ef19c77f20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,652,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,078,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,652,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 10,990 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 3,093,865$819,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274,704.17 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 76c | 2,094,971$1,599,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599,456.18 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 1c | 1,418,882$15,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,409.73 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 16c | 1,012,458$157,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854,641.28 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 0c | 996,462$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.89 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 79c | 735,050$582,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582,982.39 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 19c | 713,631$134,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578,923.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 75c | 700,000$527,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527,434.38 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed No | 80c | 692,260$551,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551,020.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 687,651$77,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609,661.5 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 46c | 602,499$279,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279,394.98 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…3805backed No | 43c | 583,415$248,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248,234.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed Yes | 11c | 560,680$60,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499,852.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 17c | 557,005$92,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464,761.43 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…592cbacked Yes | 13c | 527,861$66,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461,176.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 21c | 520,404$109,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410,442.65 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 13c | 499,417$63,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435,986.14 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 21c | 491,530$104,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387,031.49 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 75c | 470,408$351,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351,870.66 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…23debacked Yes | 15c | 466,254$70,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395,813.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +216%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed No | 43c | 459,835$199,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199,550.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 26c | 457,968$119,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338,230.46 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 74c | 443,940$329,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329,386.43 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…4e84backed Yes | 13c | 439,042$56,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382,791.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 26c | 435,147$112,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,497.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 18c | 423,257$75,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348,014.19 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 28c | 409,917$115,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294,420.98 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 17c | 400,177$68,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331,407.35 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 16c | 361,839$59,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302,493.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 17c | 337,450$56,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280,490.73 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 58c | 335,540$193,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193,058.74 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes | 19c | 320,686$60,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260,156.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…b3c7backed No | 3c | 314,240$9,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,964.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed No | 52c | 297,238$155,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155,760.86 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 19c | 297,105$56,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241,016.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 20c | 270,163$53,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216,186.19 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…3f61backed No | 0c | 258,000$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…ae2fbacked No | 0c | 255,500$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f11…9c68backed No | 0c | 249,075$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 14c | 248,508$34,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214,457.87 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 60c | 246,240$146,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146,535.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 24c | 243,047$58,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184,911.11 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed No | 79c | 242,046$191,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191,000.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 12c | 241,775$28,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213,529.04 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 24c | 240,932$57,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183,744.53 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 32c | 240,000$77,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162,683.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 41c | 235,462$95,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139,679.83 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…10f7backed Yes | 37c | 222,602$81,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141,267.47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 3c | 218,801$7,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,450.02 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 18c | 215,902$38,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177,760.03 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed No | 48c | 215,839$103,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,945.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 73c | 208,406$151,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151,740.98 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…b665backed Yes | 19c | 207,148$39,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167,462.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 17c | 204,248$34,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170,248.12 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…9801backed Yes | 13c | 200,747$26,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174,233.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…18e5backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…9334backed Yes | 16c | 200,000$32,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167,999.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f0…aaafbacked No | 1c | 199,999$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 20c | 190,893$38,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152,440.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes | 22c | 187,657$40,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147,122.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…92eebacked No | 47c | 187,074$87,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,343.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 23c | 182,700$42,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140,053.02 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 3c | 179,595$5,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,777.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes | 20c | 173,128$34,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138,884.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed No | 0c | 170,400$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…441bbacked Yes | 31c | 170,139$53,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116,951.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +128%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 26c | 165,691$43,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122,405.69 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…e5a9backed Yes | 23c | 165,461$38,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127,071.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 74c | 164,354$121,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121,336.17 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 15c | 162,224$24,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138,181.86 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…efd8backed Yes | 17c | 157,055$27,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130,046.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e54…a908backed No | 4c | 155,480$6,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,658.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…48c8backed Yes | 17c | 153,683$25,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128,267.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…02c5backed Yes | 20c | 149,955$29,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119,963.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6f22backed Yes | 19c | 147,871$27,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,212.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 78c | 146,056$114,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114,014.27 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 42c | 145,881$60,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,303.4 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 5c | 145,551$6,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,599.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 39c | 145,175$56,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,863.05 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 41c | 144,938$59,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,716.71 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…e32cbacked No | 67c | 144,079$96,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,256.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87a…d3b8backed Yes | 34c | 143,620$48,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,779.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +138%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…9f61backed No | 0c | 142,937$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed Yes | 29c | 140,668$40,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,399.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 20c | 139,088$27,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111,564.21 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…93f3backed Yes | 27c | 138,819$36,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101,863.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a0…6d87backed No | 33c | 137,507$45,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,859 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 32c | 136,205$44,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,111.01 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…4f22backed No | 0c | 132,603$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…0478backed Yes | 12c | 131,951$16,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115,885.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 72c | 130,446$93,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93,929.22 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 59c | 129,292$76,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,056.71 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 0c | 128,684$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 25c | 127,451$31,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,501.94 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 23c | 125,849$28,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,532.49 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 48c | 124,488$60,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,419.02 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…9b4bbacked Yes | 17c | 124,132$21,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103,029.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 19c | 123,607$23,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,498.36 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 23c | 123,224$28,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,143.15 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 20c | 121,393$23,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,782.23 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.