TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$357,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$353,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,946 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No55c50,079$27,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,351.5114821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes48c26,012$12,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,509.747732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f9…bd87backed No0c22,700$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32a…8c87backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d17…f6eabacked No0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf8e…bc75backed No0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef4c…fb9ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb602…59c8backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f54…5d12backed Yes54c9,258$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,257.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes48c8,076$3,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,218.541794.1%16 W · 1 L+7.3wins+0.43per pick51cpaid+118.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes44c5,362$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.1419531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa2…3170backed Yes45c5,000$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7703946.2%18 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+112.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes59c5,000$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.66045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes47c4,837$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,552.165964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2814…68dbbacked Yes37c4,025$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.893342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No28c3,914$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.0121531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0127…1230backed Yes44c3,901$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-62%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes53c3,898$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.319736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes37c3,333$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.798150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes46c3,261$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.874643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No42c2,978$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.275545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b2…2171backed Yes53c2,874$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.342369.6%16 W · 7 L+6.1wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+99.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xffe7…70fabacked No42c2,870$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes50c2,866$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.1215541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca41…0616backed Yes49c2,392$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.911060%6 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+126.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x419d…c715backed Yes43c2,324$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+222.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes36c2,219$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.0531241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5755…473cbacked Yes56c2,048$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes37c2,022$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.8818929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes44c1,734$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.242818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked Yes56c1,607$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.145954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes58c1,600$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.251764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce89…6ea5backed No63c1,589$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002025%5 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x045c…d158backed No3c1,508$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3426…bf5dbacked Yes37c1,507$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffa2…e020backed No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No56c1,487$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.8245843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef0…4806backed Yes53c1,294$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.112339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes39c1,269$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.425246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2aef…7143backed Yes57c1,200$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.7887.5%7 W · 1 L+4.5wins+0.56per pick32cpaid+217.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No59c1,175$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.4164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed Yes55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+66.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No49c986.94$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.1151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x305c…1d82backed Yes56c959.52$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe30e…eadabacked Yes52c958.86$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.374334.9%15 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No8c930.93$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…f64abacked Yes57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No36c812.87$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed No1c799.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed No64c794.23$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.22317.4%4 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-65%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf911…d1d2backed Yes53c731.97$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f42…6496backed Yes43c707.3$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.824459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes55c665.55$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.1528750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No25c620.18$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4858927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No60c613.79$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.414042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda33…44fbbacked No55c601.21$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.68425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes45c597.65$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.7550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No9c574$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.922438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked Yes50c571.76$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes44c556.82$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.6127047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6c…741fbacked Yes48c549.78$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.953135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2955756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked No14c500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.53525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked No48c499.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403330.3%10 W · 23 L-11.0wins-0.33per pick64cpaid-57.6%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x200e…28f9backed Yes42c499.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+62.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb959…709ebacked Yes57c447.37$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.371376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes43c447.16$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.999831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x556d…a75cbacked Yes58c413.79$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.791866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7af0…2e2ebacked Yes55c364.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.981369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick39cpaid+78.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbd38…00babacked Yes52c353.31$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.593125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes46c332.9$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1912038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No53c329.18$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.539942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No46c319.92$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2312944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b27…e44abacked No66c303.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-2.8wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Yes38c302.51$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.513100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+218.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No30c300$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x63b9…8680backed Yes49c286$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.461877.8%14 W · 4 L+6.3wins+0.35per pick43cpaid+95.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked No46c271.74$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254134.1%14 W · 27 L-9.5wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-53.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x327b…ffb5backed No48c265.96$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.66633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f5…e214backed Yes38c263$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+68.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed No70c257.5$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.419840.8%40 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e4…5543backed No43c255.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11090%0 W · 9 L-4.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes61c233.12$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8935652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1412…b6debacked No65c230.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150119.1%1 W · 10 L-6.5wins-0.59per pick68cpaid-88.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xa16f…5f84backed Yes39c230.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.631942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe6…0b28backed Yes49c225.05$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.394100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+126%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5c6…b456backed Yes45c221.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.271546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c14…ffa5backed No57c210.65$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.07150%0 W · 15 L-8.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0f9c…da0fbacked Yes46c210$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No59c205.94$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.325219.2%10 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-62.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No46c205.59$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.519040%36 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes41c205.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.262055%11 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+76.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed No27c204.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.146056.7%34 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b31…bac4backed No64c200.22$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7150%0 W · 15 L-7.1wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked Yes51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2110…5850backed Yes49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+65.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No18c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.832345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.