Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb75c745c6d2d6031875955ba01b62af90c622b22852af00391d45fab49ef0aea

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,064,539
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,564,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,064,539 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd517…5f34backed Yes	2c	123,571$2,392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,391.82	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes	2c	115,739$1,782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,781.76	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34d2…75a8backed Yes	3c	100,000$2,574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,574.11	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes	1c	99,674$1,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,311.29	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes	0c	86,600$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.2	88	17%15 W · 73 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	1c	70,555$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.87	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes	1c	58,477$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$810.4	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes	2c	57,320$917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$917.18	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes	2c	53,056$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.97	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	1c	44,211$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.78	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5fc…b579backed Yes	3c	38,473$1,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230.89	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	1c	37,635$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.12	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c6…50f9backed Yes	2c	37,550$817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$817.1	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37c…cd7ebacked Yes	6c	32,495$1,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,949.7	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6111…cbffbacked Yes	4c	30,000$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+3.1wins	+0.34per pick	10cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa5d…ab88backed Yes	2c	29,765$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.48	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5575…f3cabacked Yes	2c	25,748$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes	2c	25,185$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.34	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-52%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22f9…a93bbacked Yes	2c	24,756$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c95…5b93backed Yes	2c	23,873$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes	2c	22,124$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	37%17 W · 29 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes	1c	20,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70aa…9fe9backed Yes	0c	19,610$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+404.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5495…d542backed Yes	3c	18,370$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.76	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c93…6df6backed Yes	3c	17,528$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.88	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+92.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20fc…e4e6backed Yes	3c	17,089$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+76%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaed…ae9ebacked Yes	1c	17,000$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x292b…e1e0backed Yes	3c	15,768$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	3c	15,752$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.94	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ca…2bf7backed Yes	2c	15,638$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2db3…685cbacked Yes	2c	14,758$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59db…d304backed Yes	2c	14,570$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.96	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ec1…f613backed Yes	2c	14,125$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa166…ff60backed Yes	4c	13,937$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…dfc4backed Yes	2c	13,243$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4093…2e40backed Yes	4c	12,431$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.78	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb06…250abacked Yes	4c	12,165$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.61	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x289e…83febacked Yes	4c	12,083$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes	4c	11,200$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.59	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+114.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes	2c	10,866$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241	41	2.4%1 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d6c…0a9cbacked Yes	2c	10,501$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f2…60a0backed Yes	2c	10,376$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2070…dd68backed Yes	2c	10,340$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.18	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+101.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes	2c	9,928$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.78	333	37.5%125 W · 208 L	+12.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaed…fd99backed Yes	1c	9,584$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa36f…3be4backed Yes	2c	9,438$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51be…5df4backed Yes	2c	9,284$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes	2c	8,605$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ae…6264backed Yes	0c	8,600$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.1	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca6…384ebacked Yes	3c	8,256$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.64	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21be…457bbacked Yes	4c	8,073$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x344e…1922backed Yes	2c	8,029$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	8,005$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.05	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes	3c	7,997$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.72	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe617…51bcbacked Yes	2c	7,672$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.26	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	7,435$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.61	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f08…c6f5backed Yes	3c	7,421$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.64	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97b6…02c7backed Yes	2c	7,395$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes	3c	7,149$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.92	225	47.1%106 W · 119 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+25%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56a2…9d4bbacked Yes	1c	7,130$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c5…2e6bbacked Yes	2c	7,069$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf518…1e76backed Yes	2c	7,045$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes	2c	7,022$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd84a…1c25backed Yes	6c	7,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…b8f7backed Yes	2c	6,947$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes	3c	6,848$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.2	20	5%1 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec9…ffe8backed Yes	3c	6,785$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.17	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes	2c	6,775$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.52	120	38.3%46 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	3c	6,658$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.12	191	19.9%38 W · 153 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66bc…25c9backed Yes	4c	6,464$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d41…2dfabacked Yes	2c	6,456$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.7	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682b…59d8backed Yes	2c	6,339$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	1c	6,311$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.18	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe41…2dbabacked Yes	2c	6,232$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes	3c	6,126$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7683…1b60backed Yes	3c	6,100$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	12cpaid	+150%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	1c	6,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	421	20.9%88 W · 333 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc27b…4fc2backed Yes	2c	5,882$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes	2c	5,867$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.67	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes	0c	5,833$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933e…25c9backed Yes	3c	5,709$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.33	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd887…4986backed Yes	1c	5,666$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7b3…14b3backed Yes	4c	5,400$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0513…488bbacked Yes	4c	5,380$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8377…79dabacked Yes	2c	5,214$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c7…82cabacked Yes	4c	5,193$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.54	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9725backed Yes	2c	5,155$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.95	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	+7.0wins	+0.13per pick	23cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3d46…b17bbacked Yes	6c	5,103$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a6…760dbacked Yes	4c	5,001$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc483…1cdbbacked Yes	2c	4,902$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes	2c	4,893$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.13	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7256…de57backed Yes	2c	4,890$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.19	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x142e…f6e4backed Yes	2c	4,793$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd623…ee4fbacked Yes	2c	4,704$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes	2c	4,619$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.11	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd90…022fbacked Yes	3c	4,612$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94ef…2e25backed Yes	2c	4,600$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1521…90e1backed Yes	2c	4,590$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.27	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event