TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,615,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,971,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,615,405 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes2c244,180$5,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,240.43430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes1c209,499$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2806132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa206…2cadbacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes1c200,000$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.984214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes1c184,149$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,370.24456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c92,581$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.3519119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c88,111$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.788610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89a…058abacked Yes2c86,129$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.2650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c69,859$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.297618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes2c62,886$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.436336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8d…f735backed Yes2c60,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd024…dc82backed Yes1c40,526$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6290%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c39,333$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes1c36,618$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.55038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes2c35,593$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.776726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes5c34,079$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,557.51220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b13…ee28backed Yes0c32,200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes2c30,145$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.872236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes1c25,080$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.5690%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430d…1007backed Yes1c25,079$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb543…9783backed Yes1c22,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes2c21,395$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.44147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5145…2dd5backed Yes2c21,277$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes1c21,150$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0fb…d4bbbacked Yes4c20,985$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8701225%3 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffff…3455backed Yes1c20,120$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2911711.8%2 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8051138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-86%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402910.3%3 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes1c19,944$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes2c19,911$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.2133337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes2c19,582$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.31720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes0c19,565$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.69270%0 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes1c19,378$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c17,925$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.668817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes2c17,891$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.04468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes0c17,232$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcae5…6e29backed Yes2c17,011$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.05238.7%2 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+197.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes1c16,998$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.97175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ac…fac3backed Yes2c16,630$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001723.5%4 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+162.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x412b…85b2backed Yes1c16,088$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…5cc3backed Yes1c15,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes1c15,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-81.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes0c15,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…87cbbacked Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002010%2 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-69.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes4c14,242$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.81362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-89.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes3c13,891$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.73368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43b…9f66backed Yes1c13,870$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd26a…8f24backed Yes1c13,731$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+175.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1819…6cbdbacked Yes1c12,898$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes3c12,780$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.58280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes3c12,574$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.488744.8%39 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+101.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes0c12,318$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9240%0 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes1c12,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104230%0 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes1c12,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc6…c610backed Yes2c11,764$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes2c11,247$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.122814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ae…ef9cbacked Yes1c11,110$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.88100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes3c10,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302030%6 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+86.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes1c9,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae4f…b821backed Yes1c8,972$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fe…8509backed Yes2c8,894$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.01137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-62.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes1c8,635$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.81260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x462b…9ffabacked Yes1c8,470$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9180%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf576…d366backed Yes1c8,113$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.791118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e81…5599backed Yes2c8,050$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.235418.5%10 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c5…a514backed Yes0c8,040$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes1c7,820$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.88611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…e97cbacked Yes0c7,735$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab80…6253backed Yes2c7,732$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.14205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-89.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b46…48fcbacked Yes1c7,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x697f…5c2dbacked Yes0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d6c…0a9cbacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b60…1bb6backed Yes3c6,635$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dda…6e74backed Yes2c6,390$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes1c6,346$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602055%11 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+39.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes3c6,192$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.749736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66e8…0838backed Yes3c5,771$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004124.4%10 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes1c5,730$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.24280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…698bbacked Yes2c5,249$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes2c5,041$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.261926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a4…e658backed Yes1c5,039$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36290%0 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes4c5,031$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010227.5%28 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eeb…ec23backed Yes1c5,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6590%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c4,985$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes4c4,956$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.46827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes2c4,888$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.994022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes3c4,831$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13921926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab5a…177bbacked Yes1c4,700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24fc…2d72backed Yes2c4,658$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28e3…8ccdbacked Yes3c4,654$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bea…658fbacked Yes1c4,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes0c4,444$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.783925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88f5…84d7backed Yes3c4,371$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed Yes5c4,290$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.921747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f65…b2a9backed Yes2c4,182$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…cb54backed Yes3c4,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242020%4 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes1c3,846$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e87…3534backed Yes1c3,846$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504850%24 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8771…9ed0backed Yes1c3,833$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.