Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22cd37c5d898b14fb912e2f7501cdc76760551c483c9fb9f78f61b21eebfcb24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,615,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,971,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,615,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 2c | 244,180$5,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,240.43 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 1c | 209,499$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 200,000$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.98 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 1c | 184,149$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.24 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 92,581$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.35 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 88,111$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.78 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89a…058abacked Yes | 2c | 86,129$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 69,859$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 2c | 62,886$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.43 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8d…f735backed Yes | 2c | 60,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…dc82backed Yes | 1c | 40,526$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 39,333$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.7 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 1c | 36,618$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 2c | 35,593$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.77 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 5c | 34,079$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.51 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…ee28backed Yes | 0c | 32,200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 2c | 30,145$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.87 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes | 1c | 25,080$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430d…1007backed Yes | 1c | 25,079$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9783backed Yes | 1c | 22,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 2c | 21,395$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.44 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…2dd5backed Yes | 2c | 21,277$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 21,150$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…d4bbbacked Yes | 4c | 20,985$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 1c | 20,120$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 19,944$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 19,911$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.21 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 2c | 19,582$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.31 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 0c | 19,565$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 19,378$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,925$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 2c | 17,891$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.04 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 0c | 17,232$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed Yes | 2c | 17,011$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.05 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,998$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…fac3backed Yes | 2c | 16,630$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412b…85b2backed Yes | 1c | 16,088$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…5cc3backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…87cbbacked Yes | 1c | 14,286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 4c | 14,242$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.81 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 3c | 13,891$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.73 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43b…9f66backed Yes | 1c | 13,870$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…8f24backed Yes | 1c | 13,731$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +175.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…6cbdbacked Yes | 1c | 12,898$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 3c | 12,780$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.58 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 3c | 12,574$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.48 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,318$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c610backed Yes | 2c | 11,764$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 2c | 11,247$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.12 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ae…ef9cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,110$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 1c | 9,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…b821backed Yes | 1c | 8,972$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fe…8509backed Yes | 2c | 8,894$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.01 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,635$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462b…9ffabacked Yes | 1c | 8,470$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…d366backed Yes | 1c | 8,113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 2c | 8,050$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.23 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…a514backed Yes | 0c | 8,040$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 1c | 7,820$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…e97cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,735$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…6253backed Yes | 2c | 7,732$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.14 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…48fcbacked Yes | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…5c2dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6c…0a9cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b60…1bb6backed Yes | 3c | 6,635$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…6e74backed Yes | 2c | 6,390$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 1c | 6,346$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 3c | 6,192$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 3c | 5,771$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,730$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…698bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,249$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,041$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 1c | 5,039$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 4c | 5,031$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…ec23backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 4,985$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 4,956$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes | 2c | 4,888$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 3c | 4,831$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab5a…177bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…2d72backed Yes | 2c | 4,658$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e3…8ccdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,654$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…658fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 0c | 4,444$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…84d7backed Yes | 3c | 4,371$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 5c | 4,290$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…b2a9backed Yes | 2c | 4,182$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…cb54backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 1c | 3,846$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…3534backed Yes | 1c | 3,846$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…9ed0backed Yes | 1c | 3,833$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.