Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843913ab7d12cd0603524e2766ce3d128997bd0f64bfc6385a4a579552ecd152

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,035,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,637,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,035,454 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 737 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	4c	73,800$2,899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,899.35	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb43c…29c4backed Yes	5c	67,877$3,569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,569.4	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c3…cceebacked Yes	4c	61,278$2,493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,492.91	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e81…2e25backed Yes	6c	57,093$3,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,265.18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9586…8320backed Yes	3c	46,544$1,201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,201.38	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	1c	40,115$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.51	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	5c	31,283$1,692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,691.57	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes	7c	31,200$2,224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,223.65	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f01…558fbacked Yes	7c	28,748$1,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,950	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	6c	27,569$1,543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,543.01	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.16per pick	21cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed Yes	2c	25,627$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.86	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes	3c	25,180$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.18	72	0%0 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes	10c	23,000$2,335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,335	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc640…1748backed Yes	4c	22,776$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes	3c	22,447$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Yes	0c	22,189$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.74	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+69.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	4c	20,303$794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.55	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes	8c	20,000$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.99	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc79f…3882backed Yes	1c	19,207$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	18,922$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.71	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea7…7e1cbacked Yes	2c	16,299$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	3c	15,845$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.66	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc637…7dfebacked Yes	11c	15,568$1,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,749.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea98…8626backed Yes	4c	15,125$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.25	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf0f…28cebacked Yes	2c	14,982$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0a…f268backed Yes	2c	14,714$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe24f…bae5backed Yes	7c	14,234$996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996.37	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a2…fda0backed Yes	6c	14,192$788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.03	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f7…4e1cbacked Yes	6c	14,022$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa7…9857backed Yes	10c	13,050$1,328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,328.12	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae8…3ee1backed Yes	0c	12,631$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	11,973$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.59	238	4.6%11 W · 227 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01ea…ffbabacked Yes	2c	11,846$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.04	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes	5c	11,620$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	11,512$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.43	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes	9c	11,114$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	47	17%8 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	10,965$992 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$991.9	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7719…1941backed Yes	9c	10,863$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7982…97b7backed Yes	4c	10,645$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	3c	10,620$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.95	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefe5…2ce7backed Yes	6c	10,474$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90fa…d7f0backed Yes	9c	10,464$901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900.74	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb863…d1c9backed Yes	2c	10,374$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96cf…94aebacked Yes	8c	10,342$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d3…b94abacked Yes	12c	10,126$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,260	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9d…f720backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x042d…cb53backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	-81.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7d0…4b24backed Yes	5c	9,717$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes	6c	9,649$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.76	486	30.5%148 W · 338 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee7…1713backed Yes	2c	9,569$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a0…46b2backed Yes	5c	9,475$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	5c	9,457$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.85	75	13.3%10 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe016…bd76backed Yes	5c	9,393$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes	5c	9,240$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.87	67	28.4%19 W · 48 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+10%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	4c	9,164$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.23	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes	3c	9,114$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.49	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	9c	9,083$803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803.28	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdb…3cb5backed Yes	10c	9,061$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce34…21a0backed Yes	2c	8,718$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	3c	8,656$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.62	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	8,406$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.2	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29e5…62c8backed Yes	10c	8,331$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$792.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	8,302$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.29	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	3c	8,293$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.37	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes	9c	8,104$717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$717.2	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c3…18cfbacked Yes	8c	8,081$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4a…a1dcbacked Yes	2c	7,838$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6d…9b2abacked Yes	4c	7,778$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes	8c	7,645$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.87	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	3c	7,604$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.91	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	1c	7,563$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.51	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes	1c	7,500$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.42	125	42.4%53 W · 72 L	+19.6wins	+0.16per pick	27cpaid	+44.7%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1913…b494backed Yes	7c	7,438$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes	1c	6,988$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.15	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	6,892$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.72	143	0.7%1 W · 142 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-92.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes	2c	6,888$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.15	74	23%17 W · 57 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f51…e179backed Yes	6c	6,634$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.05	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1489…3577backed Yes	1c	6,570$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Yes	1c	6,270$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	6,260$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.17	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes	1c	5,915$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.61	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8d…749dbacked Yes	7c	5,850$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e39…0055backed Yes	9c	5,639$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-58%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf95d…ca8dbacked Yes	4c	5,622$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-82%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a7…7ec5backed Yes	4c	5,592$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	5,475$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.2	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes	3c	5,149$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.45	86	26.7%23 W · 63 L	+8.7wins	+0.10per pick	17cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes	2c	5,143$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b6…8165backed Yes	5c	5,126$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.07	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8a…4a4abacked Yes	7c	5,101$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.21	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8989…6e14backed Yes	3c	5,000$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes	2c	4,836$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.83	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes	8c	4,813$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	102	27.5%28 W · 74 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes	9c	4,804$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.14	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f00…0518backed Yes	2c	4,762$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes	1c	4,655$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.89	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9c…f31dbacked Yes	5c	4,470$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef5d…380abacked Yes	2c	4,440$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes	2c	4,400$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.25	67	3%2 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-73%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea66…bcaabacked Yes	3c	4,391$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.66	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event