Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94d52f34382e9c074fb62d6ad0cf715e4ae799fb58867bbf4b443b8c34a51a09

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,823,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,625,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,823,998 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc09…9024backed Yes	1c	98,148$941 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940.77	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	2c	96,877$1,610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,610.25	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes	1c	71,412$822 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$821.94	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	5c	70,000$3,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,199.99	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09a2…fda0backed Yes	2c	66,657$1,052 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,051.57	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…63a1backed Yes	2c	66,185$1,305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,304.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No	73c	62,770$45,905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,865.14	148	21.6%32 W · 116 L	-24.5wins	-0.17per pick	38cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	61,457$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.02	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea38…4fc2backed Yes	3c	61,208$1,646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,646	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ca…aa90backed Yes	6c	57,697$3,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,249.01	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No	65c	50,280$32,509 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,771.43	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes	3c	49,100$1,473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,473	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes	1c	38,131$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.44	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b08…497ebacked Yes	1c	37,850$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.08	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+94.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes	50c	37,467$18,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,847.83	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.8wins	-0.26per pick	44cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ff5…9937backed Yes	2c	35,320$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ac…2187backed Yes	2c	33,254$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.01	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-91.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes	5c	30,891$1,538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,538.05	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes	1c	30,601$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.77	88	17%15 W · 73 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…33bebacked Yes	2c	30,330$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$634.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f8d…f735backed Yes	5c	30,203$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,369.32	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes	51c	27,802$14,184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,184.07	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+10.0wins	+0.27per pick	43cpaid	+109.7%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1e81…5599backed Yes	32c	26,172$8,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,280.05	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No	50c	26,110$13,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,101.64	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+80.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No	50c	25,591$12,746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,844.76	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6266…623abacked No	72c	24,625$17,721 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,904.67	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+66.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7985…20a6backed Yes	5c	23,139$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…8262backed Yes	14c	22,551$3,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,168.03	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6da…07a4backed Yes	3c	22,114$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3039…8a62backed Yes	2c	22,000$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.76	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb06…250abacked Yes	3c	21,863$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.4	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	18c	21,801$3,933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,932.99	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes	27c	21,316$5,673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,673	102	27.5%28 W · 74 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes	1c	20,607$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.04	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2776…0317backed Yes	3c	20,089$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea98…8626backed Yes	1c	19,710$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc9c…6ab2backed Yes	1c	19,680$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes	4c	18,649$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.73	98	32.7%32 W · 66 L	-14.9wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-46%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x173e…2d86backed Yes	1c	18,178$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	48	8.3%4 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56da…6bc0backed Yes	1c	17,813$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes	2c	17,209$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.57	155	41.9%65 W · 90 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes	1c	17,000$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05ad…d7c8backed Yes	2c	16,657$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes	2c	16,532$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	41	2.4%1 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes	2c	15,705$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.35	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes	29c	15,160$4,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,470	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3972…5f85backed Yes	1c	14,858$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.65	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	26c	13,940$3,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,569.72	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d7d…20fcbacked Yes	1c	13,413$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked Yes	11c	13,032$1,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,441.06	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No	75c	12,950$9,709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,241.4	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-3.8wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes	5c	12,604$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.2	99	48.5%48 W · 51 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab6…0dafbacked Yes	5c	12,518$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Yes	4c	12,309$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.23	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-77.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	1c	12,222$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.93	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+12.7wins	+0.16per pick	35cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	1c	12,105$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.06	189	29.1%55 W · 134 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71bb…b1aebacked Yes	12c	12,001$1,417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,416.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe88…90f5backed Yes	4c	11,339$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	52	25%13 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes	1c	10,890$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.12	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	16c	10,783$1,758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,757.97	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed4…c735backed Yes	1c	10,700$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.3	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No	75c	10,563$7,898 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,665.46	74	62.2%46 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No	64c	10,281$6,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,720.18	120	38.3%46 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc1b…0e12backed Yes	4c	10,266$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes	1c	10,256$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.85	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c27…50a4backed Yes	1c	10,156$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69f3…06c3backed Yes	66c	10,060$6,671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,670.76	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes	16c	9,719$1,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,592.59	56	10.7%6 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-65%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd64d…1d5abacked Yes	2c	9,316$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7982…97b7backed Yes	1c	9,068$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes	3c	8,669$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.52	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes	1c	8,450$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.15	79	29.1%23 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	24c	8,424$2,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,022.03	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes	1c	8,363$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.12	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	15c	8,100$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,174.89	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No	49c	8,012$3,896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,115.95	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x369e…6d1cbacked Yes	1c	8,002$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.97	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No	57c	8,000$4,529 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,471.12	80	36.3%29 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes	4c	7,815$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.6	64	7.8%5 W · 59 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…eadbbacked Yes	22c	7,660$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,699.69	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd303…a125backed Yes	1c	7,652$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.12per pick	36cpaid	+13%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa98…b8f7backed Yes	49c	7,546$3,695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,695	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e59…e1e3backed Yes	28c	7,529$2,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,108.1	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes	3c	7,515$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	164	17.7%29 W · 135 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Yes	20c	7,392$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500.01	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-74%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…aa35backed Yes	1c	7,099$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d82…312fbacked Yes	7c	7,073$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.42	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4025…de4ebacked Yes	50c	7,001$3,497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,497.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	43c	6,900$2,961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,960.5	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes	1c	6,900$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	96	4.2%4 W · 92 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes	47c	6,788$3,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,158.68	99	30.3%30 W · 69 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9465…3682backed Yes	2c	6,763$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.94	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9c…dee4backed Yes	12c	6,452$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$789.76	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd517…5f34backed Yes	1c	6,433$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No	57c	6,381$3,637 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,743.8	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	11c	6,358$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.5	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4c…b2f5backed Yes	2c	6,352$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.4	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	1c	6,250$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No	47c	5,973$2,787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,185.93	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No	54c	5,960$3,239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,721.9	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event