Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4c8f562f7c6f4a191570b07a6cd8926854205a91d6da197a43924bdc4659a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,468,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,650,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,468,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,095 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 1c | 236,182$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.07 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 58c | 130,200$75,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,243.26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 69c | 101,341$69,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,654.33 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…8262backed Yes | 18c | 89,116$15,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,627.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 79c | 87,647$69,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,332.58 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 81,580$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.56 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 8c | 75,000$5,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,775 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 1c | 67,318$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.32 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 34c | 61,495$20,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,869.29 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…a209backed Yes | 3c | 60,005$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 1c | 57,566$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.03 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 55,696$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.47 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…2aa6backed Yes | 1c | 51,889$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…a125backed Yes | 3c | 50,516$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 24c | 49,519$11,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,911.39 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…84aabacked Yes | 8c | 49,402$3,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,906.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 1c | 46,207$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.12 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 78c | 43,951$34,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,718.53 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Yes | 21c | 35,119$7,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,507.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 2c | 34,710$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.39 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 4c | 32,423$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd168…af9abacked Yes | 1c | 30,746$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 5c | 30,384$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.84 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 14c | 30,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 11c | 29,858$3,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,243.53 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…acecbacked Yes | 2c | 29,096$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…63a1backed Yes | 1c | 28,996$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 37c | 28,242$10,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,847.8 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…497ebacked Yes | 3c | 27,300$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.74 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 1c | 26,511$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…ef75backed Yes | 1c | 25,889$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 25,439$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.39 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…50a4backed Yes | 2c | 25,384$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes | 57c | 25,000$14,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfed4…c735backed Yes | 1c | 24,903$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…836bbacked Yes | 8c | 24,368$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 9c | 22,726$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 39c | 22,417$8,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,801.2 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9937backed Yes | 1c | 22,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 1c | 21,622$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.33 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 2c | 20,572$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.63 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 33c | 20,523$6,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,682.68 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…0e83backed Yes | 2c | 20,263$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…8c44backed Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…a28bbacked Yes | 15c | 19,035$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.3 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 1c | 18,974$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 1c | 18,783$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 5c | 18,570$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.85 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 67c | 18,518$12,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,121.64 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…22efbacked Yes | 19c | 18,471$3,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 18,457$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.55 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 5c | 18,091$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…e1b6backed Yes | 8c | 17,546$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…0e12backed Yes | 2c | 16,768$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 77c | 16,587$12,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,843.06 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 2c | 16,539$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.76 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…267bbacked No | 50c | 16,138$7,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,143.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…7960backed Yes | 0c | 16,030$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaa…045cbacked Yes | 15c | 15,950$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 2c | 15,761$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 73c | 15,623$11,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,167.92 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked Yes | 19c | 15,472$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…d60fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,047$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9064…dc94backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 1c | 14,898$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2124backed Yes | 7c | 14,715$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 14,689$3,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.48 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 4c | 14,295$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.26 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…1028backed Yes | 7c | 14,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 56c | 14,092$7,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,236.97 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes | 2c | 14,000$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…7bacbacked Yes | 1c | 13,600$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +139%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 9c | 13,084$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.72 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…12b3backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…dfccbacked No | 79c | 13,000$10,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…b6adbacked Yes | 1c | 12,518$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked Yes | 39c | 12,335$4,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,825.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 2c | 12,331$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.66 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 41c | 12,240$5,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,224.84 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 3c | 12,232$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.32 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x144b…5dcfbacked Yes | 10c | 12,046$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…87d8backed Yes | 3c | 11,903$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…24f9backed Yes | 4c | 11,867$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…41b8backed Yes | 4c | 11,861$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed No | 73c | 11,842$8,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,197.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…0957backed Yes | 1c | 11,003$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…9ba9backed Yes | 5c | 11,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 4c | 10,947$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.81 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 4c | 10,930$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.41 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…33bebacked Yes | 5c | 10,599$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…6159backed Yes | 1c | 10,502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 5c | 10,396$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.8 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…f088backed Yes | 34c | 10,250$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aea…90e9backed Yes | 1c | 10,222$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed Yes | 2c | 10,106$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.66 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…5b31backed Yes | 59c | 10,100$5,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,943.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…18a3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…0306backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…21a0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.