Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843fc1f23d8cfd3df343031312a8a3f0a930ad118c0c0e81a56c21f0ea9ff217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,296,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,114,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,296,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 5c | 226,269$10,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,296.3 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 6c | 179,400$10,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,542.72 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda11…89a6backed Yes | 7c | 151,244$9,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,983.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes | 3c | 150,358$4,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,323.63 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes | 12c | 148,175$17,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,880.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…5980backed Yes | 5c | 136,254$7,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,260.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 4c | 117,877$5,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,091.07 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…007abacked Yes | 5c | 112,666$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…d7c2backed Yes | 8c | 109,884$9,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,208.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 5c | 109,323$5,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,985.13 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 6c | 106,026$6,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,267.26 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 3c | 94,658$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.08 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 84,476$2,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.45 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 16c | 80,142$13,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,021.42 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 4c | 77,808$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,061.66 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…fc41backed Yes | 3c | 69,997$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…a209backed Yes | 12c | 69,356$8,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,099.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 4c | 68,191$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961.39 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed Yes | 7c | 66,665$4,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,333.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc830…42cabacked Yes | 9c | 61,000$5,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,489.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…8519backed Yes | 7c | 58,290$4,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,062.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 57,742$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.1 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ef…f35fbacked Yes | 12c | 56,528$6,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,610.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 44c | 51,492$22,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,689.42 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…e488backed Yes | 4c | 51,001$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 6c | 50,784$3,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,104.99 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 4c | 50,410$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.07 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 16c | 50,172$8,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,034.07 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…d7c8backed Yes | 4c | 48,449$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.42 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 4c | 46,654$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.44 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 74c | 45,144$33,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,743.73 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…9636backed Yes | 5c | 44,248$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 10c | 40,932$4,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,119.3 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…97aebacked Yes | 6c | 40,800$2,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…99dabacked Yes | 6c | 40,619$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…a125backed Yes | 7c | 40,000$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f5…9153backed Yes | 3c | 39,849$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 2c | 39,151$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.61 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72f6…9769backed Yes | 6c | 37,721$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e6…798fbacked Yes | 4c | 37,550$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…6669backed Yes | 4c | 37,282$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.79 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…8262backed Yes | 21c | 37,230$7,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,842.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 41c | 34,757$14,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,223.49 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 34,515$8,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,958.33 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…0d19backed Yes | 7c | 32,977$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.86 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 5c | 31,621$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.06 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8d…f735backed Yes | 3c | 31,500$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 30,734$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.12 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 11c | 30,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…31b3backed Yes | 3c | 29,060$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 23c | 28,519$6,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,936.82 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 5c | 27,777$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.04 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…2a0dbacked Yes | 7c | 27,014$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.2 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 4c | 26,613$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.07 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 31c | 26,466$8,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,295.13 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 3c | 25,647$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd168…af9abacked Yes | 3c | 25,622$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 9c | 25,066$2,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.31 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 74c | 24,666$18,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,519.82 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 4c | 24,640$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.1 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 3c | 24,195$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.37 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…1a8bbacked Yes | 4c | 23,912$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…063cbacked Yes | 4c | 23,546$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…aa8cbacked Yes | 6c | 23,394$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fc…08f8backed Yes | 5c | 23,219$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 3c | 22,289$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.01 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…e7c1backed Yes | 5c | 22,015$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…9572backed Yes | 4c | 22,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…0bf7backed Yes | 4c | 21,623$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…fdedbacked Yes | 10c | 21,550$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 21,000$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…41b8backed Yes | 13c | 20,957$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fd…44e8backed Yes | 5c | 20,428$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a2…fda0backed Yes | 4c | 20,344$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…cc5bbacked Yes | 6c | 20,246$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…59dabacked Yes | 5c | 20,117$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 60c | 19,801$11,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,897.45 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac7…8339backed Yes | 3c | 19,745$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…fdb3backed No | 49c | 19,637$9,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,949.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 4c | 19,602$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.58 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c4d6backed Yes | 6c | 19,418$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.83 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 9c | 18,800$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 18,370$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.93 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5d…dc30backed Yes | 3c | 18,352$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5d…ab88backed Yes | 4c | 18,106$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…31ffbacked Yes | 19c | 17,932$3,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,448.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…a94bbacked Yes | 3c | 17,150$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 17,112$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.26 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c16…2cb5backed Yes | 6c | 17,009$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…fb70backed No | 79c | 16,565$13,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 18c | 16,340$2,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,888.77 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…2a9dbacked Yes | 62c | 16,150$10,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,012.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc019…91babacked Yes | 3c | 16,134$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…8875backed Yes | 6c | 16,113$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 63c | 16,057$10,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,181.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb200…7f34backed Yes | 1c | 15,832$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108e…b771backed Yes | 4c | 15,591$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 3c | 15,448$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.81 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 3c | 15,329$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.03 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.