Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02e8bc0b915c7d6fc79363f84ca301edeb3c5cd7a7c30cf9517cb4a49a96e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,146,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,924,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,146,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,758 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 1c | 514,407$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766.27 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 1c | 508,943$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 2c | 462,698$9,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,971.57 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 312,933$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.97 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 3c | 239,999$6,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,889.98 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 5c | 221,403$10,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,605.62 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 3c | 207,787$6,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,987.61 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 201,995$4,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940.21 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 8c | 175,580$13,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,187.38 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 2c | 163,987$3,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,655.14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…edeabacked Yes | 31c | 160,723$50,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,430.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 0c | 159,600$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.45 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8d…f735backed Yes | 0c | 158,592$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 0c | 157,000$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 148,343$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.26 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 4c | 140,768$4,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,930.07 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…bcc3backed Yes | 2c | 124,159$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…013abacked Yes | 10c | 116,669$11,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,300.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 14c | 113,066$15,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,898.65 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 7c | 112,356$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…86b3backed Yes | 1c | 103,247$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d5…37eebacked Yes | 2c | 99,640$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed Yes | 11c | 94,067$9,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,985.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…fe22backed Yes | 2c | 93,319$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes | 1c | 80,213$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 14c | 75,010$10,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,285.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 8c | 72,463$5,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,855.51 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 67,903$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.6 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8d…3451backed Yes | 0c | 66,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 3c | 66,309$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 1c | 65,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 15c | 61,790$9,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,010.39 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 12c | 56,070$6,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,997.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 79c | 56,000$44,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,864.95 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb54…5202backed Yes | 3c | 55,516$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 15c | 54,545$8,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,138.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…080fbacked Yes | 1c | 53,867$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 75c | 52,384$39,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,880.84 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 14c | 52,105$7,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,149.03 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…8a07backed No | 68c | 51,824$35,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,674.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 3c | 50,546$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.86 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 6c | 50,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 1c | 48,500$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…0306backed Yes | 2c | 48,161$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes | 1c | 48,129$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 9c | 46,252$4,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.54 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 1c | 45,063$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.1 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 3c | 44,115$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…1b29backed Yes | 1c | 43,500$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 24c | 41,568$10,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,141.15 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 41,276$6,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,905.86 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 40,772$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.84 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 4c | 40,000$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes | 6c | 40,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 7c | 39,884$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.17 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…1442backed Yes | 10c | 39,155$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,843.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…e3bdbacked Yes | 12c | 38,000$4,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,428.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafac…4a84backed Yes | 9c | 37,229$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…a51abacked Yes | 1c | 37,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 3cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 23c | 36,405$8,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,475.04 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 28c | 35,304$9,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,834.23 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes | 3c | 34,615$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 10c | 34,127$3,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,428.25 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fe…0222backed Yes | 1c | 33,813$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…12c2backed Yes | 14c | 33,558$4,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,655.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8064…e50cbacked Yes | 40c | 32,336$13,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,081.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccb…d731backed Yes | 1c | 32,188$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 78c | 30,944$24,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,774.79 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…86f0backed Yes | 3c | 28,920$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…da4abacked Yes | 47c | 28,037$13,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,197.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 11c | 27,721$3,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,112.21 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed No | 77c | 27,557$21,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,328.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 60c | 27,500$16,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,105.06 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 13c | 26,701$3,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 23c | 26,488$6,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,088.37 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…e408backed Yes | 2c | 26,195$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 50c | 25,930$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 25,076$4,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,378.9 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266a…90c3backed Yes | 2c | 25,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…1506backed Yes | 6c | 24,983$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 11c | 24,500$2,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.99 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…5e38backed No | 75c | 23,455$17,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,782.74 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…f074backed Yes | 1c | 23,333$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c046backed Yes | 3c | 23,300$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.8 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…a2adbacked Yes | 39c | 22,735$8,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,754.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 21,650$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.51 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…2505backed Yes | 2c | 21,442$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 72c | 21,301$15,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,905.87 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…8680backed Yes | 10c | 21,218$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.71 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed Yes | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 10c | 20,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 69c | 20,000$13,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,274.97 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 10c | 19,353$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 12c | 19,314$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.35 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 31c | 19,193$6,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,037.29 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 4c | 19,174$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes | 15c | 18,121$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…25e8backed Yes | 2c | 18,019$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.