TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,146,244
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,924,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,146,244 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,758 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes1c514,407$2,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,766.272218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes1c508,943$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,868.652524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes2c462,698$9,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,971.5714039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes1c312,933$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.973810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes3c239,999$6,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,889.986336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes5c221,403$10,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,605.6213823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes3c207,787$6,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,987.61147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c201,995$4,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,940.21456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed Yes8c175,580$13,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,187.382917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca38…c70ebacked Yes2c163,987$3,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,655.14110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd883…edeabacked Yes31c160,723$50,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,430.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes0c159,600$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.458626.7%23 W · 63 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+42.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f8d…f735backed Yes0c158,592$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.7770%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes0c157,000$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c148,343$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.268610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c140,768$4,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,930.0719119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x685f…bcc3backed Yes2c124,159$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fec…013abacked Yes10c116,669$11,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,300.0540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes14c113,066$15,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,898.6535631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d1…4e28backed Yes7c112,356$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,399.841752.9%9 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+184.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x15eb…86b3backed Yes1c103,247$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d5…37eebacked Yes2c99,640$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430f…5947backed Yes11c94,067$9,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,985.591650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+61.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3d9…fe22backed Yes2c93,319$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,83220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes1c80,213$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-58.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3526…aababacked Yes14c75,010$10,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,285.57425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+52.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes8c72,463$5,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,855.51698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c67,903$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.617111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8d…3451backed Yes0c66,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes3c66,309$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1971915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes1c65,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes15c61,790$9,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,010.393823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e6…fd61backed Yes12c56,070$6,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,997.191010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No79c56,000$44,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,864.955745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb54…5202backed Yes3c55,516$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes15c54,545$8,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,138.55825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43d…080fbacked Yes1c53,867$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No75c52,384$39,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,880.8412650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9346…cb76backed Yes14c52,105$7,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,149.032114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abe…8a07backed No68c51,824$35,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,674.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes3c50,546$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.863917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes6c50,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005650%28 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c50,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1057618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes1c48,500$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.58125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e72…0306backed Yes2c48,161$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0073221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes1c48,129$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes9c46,252$4,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,130.543010%3 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes1c45,063$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.15433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes3c44,115$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x82b2…1b29backed Yes1c43,500$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes24c41,568$10,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,141.158150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes17c41,276$6,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,905.8642818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes2c40,772$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.8443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes4c40,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6401361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+62.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes6c40,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes7c39,884$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.1722547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be9…1442backed Yes10c39,155$3,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,843.521323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3511…e3bdbacked Yes12c38,000$4,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,428.97650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafac…4a84backed Yes9c37,229$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.691118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd387…a51abacked Yes1c37,000$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick3cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes23c36,405$8,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,475.0415541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes28c35,304$9,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,834.233525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes3c34,615$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.92922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdec7…f536backed Yes10c34,127$3,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,428.253438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79fe…0222backed Yes1c33,813$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d4…12c2backed Yes14c33,558$4,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,655.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8064…e50cbacked Yes40c32,336$13,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,081.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccb…d731backed Yes1c32,188$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No78c30,944$24,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,774.793030%9 W · 21 L-9.6wins-0.32per pick62cpaid-55.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8284…86f0backed Yes3c28,920$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000150%0 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa3…da4abacked Yes47c28,037$13,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,197.961553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick28cpaid+71.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes11c27,721$3,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,112.2142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5060…a780backed No77c27,557$21,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,328.982552%13 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No60c27,500$16,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,105.064465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes13c26,701$3,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,365.051540%6 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+149.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes23c26,488$6,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,088.37827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a4…e408backed Yes2c26,195$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes50c25,930$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,0003828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes17c25,076$4,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,378.914129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x266a…90c3backed Yes2c25,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4013…1506backed Yes6c24,983$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e81…5599backed Yes11c24,500$2,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,683.995418.5%10 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b54…5e38backed No75c23,455$17,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,782.742524%6 W · 19 L-7.0wins-0.28per pick52cpaid-64.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd713…f074backed Yes1c23,333$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98bf…c046backed Yes3c23,300$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.8166.3%1 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc969…a2adbacked Yes39c22,735$8,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,754.831145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+64.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c21,650$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.51600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b6…2505backed Yes2c21,442$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.69633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+159.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No72c21,301$15,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,905.877462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…8680backed Yes10c21,218$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.711414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202910.3%3 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68fe…8792backed Yes45c20,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,000966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+44.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No69c20,000$13,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,274.974665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes10c19,353$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.521040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes12c19,314$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,370.3533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes31c19,193$6,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,037.296063.3%38 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+114.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes4c19,174$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.691926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes15c18,121$2,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,746.121338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc617…25e8backed Yes2c18,019$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.