TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,087,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,429,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,087,849 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37d1…4e28backed Yes5c743,545$37,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,929.921752.9%9 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+184.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Yes0c591,199$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.953315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c408,625$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.438610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes2c382,349$6,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,193.1410417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes7c364,263$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,5006132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes6c320,102$19,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,664.415230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes5c295,257$13,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,821.313240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1caa…46a0backed Yes5c291,931$16,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,017.321030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+52.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2811…838abacked Yes1c281,130$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.061752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a1a…2ffebacked Yes4c252,170$10,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,319.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes22c251,741$56,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,400.412218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5b…691dbacked Yes2c234,672$5,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,295.53616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+120.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes5c200,702$10,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,671.115246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b76…008cbacked Yes5c200,062$9,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,873.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes6c192,500$10,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,936.56129.5%18 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes7c166,715$10,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,844.22524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes1c152,913$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8331915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x211d…64febacked Yes3c152,507$5,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1671040%4 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick11cpaid+428.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6391…ebbbbacked Yes5c147,118$6,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+156.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes1c128,532$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.9817414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes3c117,780$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,041.25430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked No78c116,313$91,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,040.877732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes1c116,233$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.8914325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes9c113,556$10,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,274.7319531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a4…6356backed No77c107,825$83,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,677.28944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef3…16dbbacked Yes5c107,307$5,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,445.881926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e38…5130backed Yes1c106,238$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+210.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1453…a680backed Yes4c105,586$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,968.13043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes1c100,309$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.757538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes9c99,698$8,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,474.345836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4899…c212backed Yes1c95,149$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274c…da86backed Yes9c90,092$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes1c89,414$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.34698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ff8…54adbacked Yes4c83,189$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,350425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…ab51backed Yes6c80,600$4,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,697.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a11…2efdbacked Yes4c78,616$3,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,007.02520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+53.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes7c75,927$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,016.7913022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes27c75,000$20,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,249.981414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes11c73,957$8,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,170.923810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc4…ab52backed Yes5c73,324$4,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,010366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+139.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f1…063cbacked Yes1c73,240$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes1c69,880$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.988641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes2c69,412$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.971625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813d…5157backed Yes6c66,897$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,694.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+109.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff0…1210backed Yes3c64,547$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.961421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf453…2547backed Yes4c64,530$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.061216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes2c63,628$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.563135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes7c63,058$4,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,364.31827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes4c62,924$2,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,561.98412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes5c62,652$3,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4011811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+428.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58cb…004dbacked Yes1c61,773$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed Yes4c60,880$2,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.387529.3%22 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes3c59,286$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03de…5f73backed Yes1c58,650$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.6870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes4c57,274$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.7128734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4354…89a9backed Yes5c54,307$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5072512%3 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cc…882cbacked Yes6c53,781$3,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.071127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+129.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd133…972cbacked Yes7c52,648$3,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7932317.4%4 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a0…fb3cbacked Yes0c51,380$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes4c50,223$2,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,135.642133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes9c45,418$4,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0174526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes6c45,001$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.1317018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c45,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1357618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14cf…c320backed Yes7c44,590$3,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,260.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb654…e210backed Yes5c43,737$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes4c43,051$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.381488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c42,726$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.5721521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes4c42,630$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.2442329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…d77abacked Yes23c42,530$9,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,984560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+80.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes5c41,678$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.448433.3%28 W · 56 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes3c41,497$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.587542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x355b…ef9fbacked Yes2c41,351$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.35560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x184f…45a1backed Yes5c41,017$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1051435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x939a…6f9abacked Yes6c41,013$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e2…8849backed Yes2c39,983$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes21c38,598$7,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,930.72850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x98bf…c046backed Yes4c38,307$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.05166.3%1 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a7…c343backed Yes3c37,315$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2701735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2584…b0c9backed Yes8c36,240$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e88…df66backed Yes5c35,977$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+107.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe622…8ae4backed Yes3c35,486$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb918…0e85backed Yes4c34,241$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74a7…5980backed Yes6c33,567$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001926.3%5 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8db0…64ebbacked Yes3c33,565$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.191643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd0c…f306backed Yes2c33,479$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb54…5202backed Yes4c33,152$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.06714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…2b97backed Yes1c33,050$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b17…3117backed Yes9c32,381$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8002317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b5…4acebacked Yes3c32,100$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Yes5c31,998$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.682821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe757…03a9backed Yes6c31,877$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…34c3backed Yes5c30,991$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.361650%8 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+134.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Yes2c30,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e00…d1ffbacked Yes6c30,000$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb06…250abacked Yes4c30,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-86.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e87…57afbacked Yes7c29,646$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.782412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-65.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34bb…3f87backed Yes3c29,293$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.31633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes9c29,247$2,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.129736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes6c28,752$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.1535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3305…31dabacked Yes4c28,384$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.