Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09cbe3e796661a1d820580145488ad2ccb9ad1e720efcd64b448bb77b97007c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,087,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,429,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,087,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 5c | 743,545$37,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,929.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 0c | 591,199$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.95 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 408,625$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.43 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 2c | 382,349$6,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,193.14 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 7c | 364,263$24,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,500 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 6c | 320,102$19,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,664.4 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 5c | 295,257$13,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,821.31 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…46a0backed Yes | 5c | 291,931$16,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,017.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…838abacked Yes | 1c | 281,130$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1a…2ffebacked Yes | 4c | 252,170$10,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,319.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 22c | 251,741$56,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,400.41 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…691dbacked Yes | 2c | 234,672$5,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,295.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 5c | 200,702$10,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,671.11 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…008cbacked Yes | 5c | 200,062$9,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,873.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 6c | 192,500$10,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,936.5 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 7c | 166,715$10,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,844.2 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 1c | 152,913$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…64febacked Yes | 3c | 152,507$5,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,167 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +428.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…ebbbbacked Yes | 5c | 147,118$6,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,666.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 128,532$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.98 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 3c | 117,780$3,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,041.25 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 78c | 116,313$91,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,040.87 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 1c | 116,233$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.89 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 9c | 113,556$10,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,274.73 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed No | 77c | 107,825$83,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,677.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…16dbbacked Yes | 5c | 107,307$5,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,445.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e38…5130backed Yes | 1c | 106,238$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +210.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 4c | 105,586$3,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,968.1 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 1c | 100,309$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.75 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 9c | 99,698$8,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,474.34 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…c212backed Yes | 1c | 95,149$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…da86backed Yes | 9c | 90,092$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 1c | 89,414$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.34 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…54adbacked Yes | 4c | 83,189$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…ab51backed Yes | 6c | 80,600$4,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,697.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…2efdbacked Yes | 4c | 78,616$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 7c | 75,927$5,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,016.79 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 27c | 75,000$20,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,249.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 11c | 73,957$8,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,170.92 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…ab52backed Yes | 5c | 73,324$4,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,010 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…063cbacked Yes | 1c | 73,240$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 1c | 69,880$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.98 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 2c | 69,412$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.97 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813d…5157backed Yes | 6c | 66,897$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed Yes | 3c | 64,547$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…2547backed Yes | 4c | 64,530$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 2c | 63,628$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.56 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 7c | 63,058$4,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,364.31 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 4c | 62,924$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.98 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 5c | 62,652$3,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,401 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…004dbacked Yes | 1c | 61,773$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed Yes | 4c | 60,880$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,614.38 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 3c | 59,286$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…5f73backed Yes | 1c | 58,650$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 4c | 57,274$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.71 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 54,307$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…882cbacked Yes | 6c | 53,781$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,179.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…972cbacked Yes | 7c | 52,648$3,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,793 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a0…fb3cbacked Yes | 0c | 51,380$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 4c | 50,223$2,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 9c | 45,418$4,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,017 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 6c | 45,001$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.13 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…c320backed Yes | 7c | 44,590$3,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb654…e210backed Yes | 5c | 43,737$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 4c | 43,051$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.38 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 42,726$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.57 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 42,630$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.24 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…d77abacked Yes | 23c | 42,530$9,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,984 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 5c | 41,678$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.44 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 3c | 41,497$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.58 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…ef9fbacked Yes | 2c | 41,351$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…45a1backed Yes | 5c | 41,017$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…6f9abacked Yes | 6c | 41,013$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e2…8849backed Yes | 2c | 39,983$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 21c | 38,598$7,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,930.7 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c046backed Yes | 4c | 38,307$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.05 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…c343backed Yes | 3c | 37,315$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2584…b0c9backed Yes | 8c | 36,240$2,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…df66backed Yes | 5c | 35,977$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…8ae4backed Yes | 3c | 35,486$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…0e85backed Yes | 4c | 34,241$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…5980backed Yes | 6c | 33,567$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…64ebbacked Yes | 3c | 33,565$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0c…f306backed Yes | 2c | 33,479$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb54…5202backed Yes | 4c | 33,152$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…2b97backed Yes | 1c | 33,050$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…3117backed Yes | 9c | 32,381$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b5…4acebacked Yes | 3c | 32,100$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked Yes | 5c | 31,998$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.68 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…03a9backed Yes | 6c | 31,877$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…34c3backed Yes | 5c | 30,991$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…d1ffbacked Yes | 6c | 30,000$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 4c | 30,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…57afbacked Yes | 7c | 29,646$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.78 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…3f87backed Yes | 3c | 29,293$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 9c | 29,247$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.12 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 28,752$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.15 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…31dabacked Yes | 4c | 28,384$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.