Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c0aa27e741d5bfeb0a06e68bddd256b857fd27597c76c500250db1483c51aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,642,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,850,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,642,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 58c | 446,259$259,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259,692.42 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 48c | 393,049$188,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188,715.79 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed No | 55c | 200,000$110,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 199,640$127,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,094.94 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…23debacked Yes | 42c | 151,134$63,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,889.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +216%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 60c | 130,337$77,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,951.21 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 45c | 112,412$50,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,226.42 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 49c | 108,281$53,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,379.82 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed Yes | 45c | 91,464$41,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,155.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…d03fbacked Yes | 49c | 89,457$43,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,737.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 53c | 88,977$47,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,726.19 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 54c | 83,438$44,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,544.14 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes | 33c | 74,671$24,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,979.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…7caabacked Yes | 62c | 73,230$45,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,176.91 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 42c | 68,194$28,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,350.64 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 31c | 62,500$19,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,849.77 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…da4abacked Yes | 41c | 60,509$24,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,746.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 34c | 57,777$19,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,467.61 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 36c | 55,866$20,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,634.04 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 58c | 54,000$31,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,516.74 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 71c | 50,000$35,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,507.59 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 53c | 49,875$26,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,555.71 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 47c | 47,195$22,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,147.79 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 55c | 46,529$25,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,710.13 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 51c | 46,068$23,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,367.94 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 44c | 45,407$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,406.57 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…592cbacked Yes | 36c | 44,643$16,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,408.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 46c | 44,236$20,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,036.53 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 50c | 43,975$21,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,149.86 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…28b3backed No | 58c | 42,000$24,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,569.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…ebd9backed Yes | 49c | 41,846$20,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,158.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 55c | 41,124$22,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,634.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 50c | 40,474$20,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,191.88 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 51c | 40,000$20,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,560.32 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…8254backed No | 51c | 39,594$20,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,192.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…4950backed Yes | 49c | 37,636$18,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,341.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…e5a9backed Yes | 48c | 36,600$17,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,899.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed Yes | 49c | 34,767$17,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,636.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 40c | 34,444$13,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,817.83 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 47c | 34,049$15,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,138.71 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 69c | 32,953$22,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,699.22 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…6e72backed Yes | 47c | 32,815$15,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,452.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 43c | 32,124$13,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,391.3 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa860…442fbacked No | 49c | 30,198$14,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,797.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 57c | 29,892$17,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,074.16 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ef…f35fbacked Yes | 43c | 29,166$12,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,670.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 44c | 28,836$12,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,126.14 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…1807backed Yes | 50c | 28,574$14,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,409.65 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 45c | 28,424$12,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,534.15 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 49c | 28,176$13,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,406.15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 50c | 27,954$14,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,935.7 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 41c | 27,862$11,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,431.64 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 40c | 27,778$11,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,653.56 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 57c | 27,167$15,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,634.69 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 37c | 26,745$9,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,955.51 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2ab0backed No | 51c | 26,577$13,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,545.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…bf69backed Yes | 51c | 25,132$12,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,429.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 51c | 25,000$12,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,150 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 51c | 24,719$12,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,051.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 53c | 24,500$12,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,969.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed No | 49c | 24,490$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…6f34backed Yes | 60c | 24,308$14,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,778.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 55c | 23,631$13,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,108.55 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…932cbacked Yes | 49c | 23,551$11,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,111.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed Yes | 47c | 21,326$10,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,232.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 40c | 21,313$8,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,705.94 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…0888backed Yes | 48c | 21,199$10,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,997.31 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.50per pick | 32cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 57c | 20,800$11,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,947.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 45c | 20,793$9,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,416.14 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 45c | 20,477$9,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,164.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 55c | 20,276$11,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,186.36 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…6424backed Yes | 50c | 20,266$10,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,125.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 59c | 20,000$11,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,699.98 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes | 45c | 20,000$9,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,899.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 54c | 19,965$10,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,783.29 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…dee1backed No | 54c | 19,900$10,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,810 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 56c | 19,170$10,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,778.53 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 54c | 18,401$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 68c | 18,128$12,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,778.33 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 55c | 18,000$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,900 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…d050backed Yes | 48c | 17,829$8,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,229.08 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 49c | 17,746$8,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,114.63 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 46c | 17,626$8,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,109.17 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…752bbacked Yes | 56c | 17,599$9,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,686.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 47c | 17,456$8,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,144.91 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 46c | 17,071$7,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,144.45 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f11…9c68backed No | 48c | 17,063$8,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,180.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad9…4eb4backed Yes | 24c | 16,507$3,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,526.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +314.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed Yes | 51c | 16,111$8,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,894.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 46c | 16,000$7,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,604.42 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…5bf1backed Yes | 56c | 15,563$8,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,866.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 49c | 15,435$7,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,551.8 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 52c | 15,386$8,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,369.44 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 53c | 15,267$8,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,133.23 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…82e4backed Yes | 52c | 15,135$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,334.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…29bfbacked Yes | 31c | 14,761$4,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,185.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd623…ee4fbacked Yes | 47c | 14,365$6,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,566.02 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…fa95backed No | 49c | 14,163$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 10c | 14,104$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.42 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…cdcbbacked Yes | 49c | 13,951$6,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,081.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.