TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,658 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No60c45,350$27,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,376.8814821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No68c15,265$10,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,327.0710335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes43c13,855$5,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,913.377732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes39c11,481$4,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,964.6712038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes39c9,846$3,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,002.249736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes32c9,620$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,539.2819531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes48c8,848$4,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,600.7912245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes33c8,611$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,769.5731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes41c6,000$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,54013850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes34c5,555$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,666.38150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No13c4,691$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8726423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed No50c4,457$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25010227.5%28 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf1…e64bbacked No2c4,112$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes50c3,761$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.25545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes57c3,664$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.9212944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes40c3,288$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.8820336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No37c2,573$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96322927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No49c2,400$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.997820.5%16 W · 62 L-11.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x511b…be35backed Yes38c2,163$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.321450%7 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+111.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd724…ddcfbacked Yes48c2,067$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.732100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+220.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b9a…7467backed Yes49c2,053$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.19475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+68.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No2c2,008$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0721531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes52c1,979$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.21764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb959…709ebacked Yes52c1,910$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.071376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d65…71c5backed Yes79c1,728$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.01475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16015625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes37c1,587$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.62560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+154.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No10c1,473$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.414928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes59c1,247$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.0615541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No52c1,227$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.14850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+320.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6005964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f61…4425backed Yes53c1,082$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a2…958abacked Yes48c1,043$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.331154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5508920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48035355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5fb…6eb5backed No66c967.41$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.492646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes45c946.97$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes48c900.19$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.8835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No59c631.7$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.129942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes49c611.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.191833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes65c567.27$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.643548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No10c508.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.832438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2352828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked No14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.43525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No11c480.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes53c466.54$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.242060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46c4…955cbacked No67c454.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe30e…eadabacked Yes46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.784334.9%15 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes33c427.19$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.4411728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No34c414.06$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes44c403.17$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.9226138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b2…47f7backed Yes37c401.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.12850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a73…c046backed Yes42c388.95$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+60.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No16c375.24$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0858927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27b…3966backed No15c350$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.53125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes41c333$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.478139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…0484backed Yes48c314.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.56850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6287…cd0bbacked Yes46c310.61$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+183.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd49c…2cbdbacked Yes35c301.91$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.911127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394827.1%13 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+72.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes47c266$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.983743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c4d…96b9backed Yes38c256.72$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.372236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed No66c249.62$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653438.2%13 W · 21 L-8.2wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-39.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd455…1a22backed Yes32c246$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.713100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes71c233.78$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.817052.9%37 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes32c232.71$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7124224.4%59 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x946e…e9cabacked Yes54c228.69$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.699100%9 W · 0 L+5.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+151.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd2d3…a752backed Yes53c226.42$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c226.01$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…bce9backed Yes48c208.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.82683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+76.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7307…556bbacked Yes48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No64c207.98$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.715219.2%10 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-62.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No6c204$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.027135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa6…0cacbacked Yes49c200$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12816650%83 W · 83 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266041.7%25 W · 35 L+12.5wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+102.7%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes34c200$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1334163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+53.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No52c200$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.232345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No35c200$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324136.6%15 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3731…9afcbacked No68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136137.7%1 W · 12 L-6.9wins-0.53per pick61cpaid-87.8%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908538.8%33 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b31…bac4backed No68c198.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.98150%0 W · 15 L-7.1wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x3c14…ffa5backed No63c197.59$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.48150%0 W · 15 L-8.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes51c194.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.997341.1%30 W · 43 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8966…5d80backed No65c194.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.741414.3%2 W · 12 L-5.6wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-79.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes63c187.28$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.799040%36 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed No51c184.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4610417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf295…0335backed No55c182.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes65c179.91$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6335652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5712343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xef0b…8996backed Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.572050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked No47c175$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835040%20 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ae…2d46backed No49c164.51$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6160%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes45c157.07$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.073363.6%21 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+53.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1412…b6debacked No65c153.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-6.5wins-0.59per pick68cpaid-88.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked No54c153.18$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.723330.3%10 W · 23 L-11.0wins-0.33per pick64cpaid-57.6%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No37c152.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.