Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc286ca5f101f7a88e51c89e0be838983f32e4932e941a881973df91f5878536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 60c | 45,350$27,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,376.88 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 68c | 15,265$10,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,327.07 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 43c | 13,855$5,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,913.37 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 39c | 11,481$4,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,964.67 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 39c | 9,846$3,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,002.24 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 32c | 9,620$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,539.28 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 48c | 8,848$4,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600.79 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 33c | 8,611$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,769.57 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 41c | 6,000$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,540 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 34c | 5,555$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666.3 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 13c | 4,691$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.87 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed No | 50c | 4,457$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf1…e64bbacked No | 2c | 4,112$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 50c | 3,761$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.2 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 57c | 3,664$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.92 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 40c | 3,288$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.88 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 37c | 2,573$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 49c | 2,400$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.99 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…be35backed Yes | 38c | 2,163$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…ddcfbacked Yes | 48c | 2,067$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9a…7467backed Yes | 49c | 2,053$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 2c | 2,008$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes | 52c | 1,979$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…709ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,910$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.07 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…71c5backed Yes | 79c | 1,728$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 37c | 1,587$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +154.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 1,473$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.41 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 59c | 1,247$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.06 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 52c | 1,227$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +320.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…4425backed Yes | 53c | 1,082$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…958abacked Yes | 48c | 1,043$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…6eb5backed No | 66c | 967.41$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.49 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 45c | 946.97$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 48c | 900.19$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.88 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 59c | 631.7$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.12 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…1ff9backed Yes | 49c | 611.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 65c | 567.27$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.64 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 508.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 480.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…8d6bbacked Yes | 53c | 466.54$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c4…955cbacked No | 67c | 454.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked Yes | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 33c | 427.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.44 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 414.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 44c | 403.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.92 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…47f7backed Yes | 37c | 401.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 42c | 388.95$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 375.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 15c | 350$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 41c | 333$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.47 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed Yes | 48c | 314.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6287…cd0bbacked Yes | 46c | 310.61$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +183.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49c…2cbdbacked Yes | 35c | 301.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 47c | 266$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…96b9backed Yes | 38c | 256.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.37 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed No | 66c | 249.62$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -8.2wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd455…1a22backed Yes | 32c | 246$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 71c | 233.78$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 32c | 232.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.71 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…e9cabacked Yes | 54c | 228.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +5.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…a752backed Yes | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 226.01$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Yes | 48c | 208.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…556bbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 64c | 207.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.71 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 204$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa6…0cacbacked Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.9wins | -0.53per pick | 61cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b31…bac4backed No | 68c | 198.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -7.1wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ffa5backed No | 63c | 197.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -8.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 51c | 194.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed No | 65c | 194.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 63c | 187.28$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 51c | 184.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…0335backed No | 55c | 182.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 65c | 179.91$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef0b…8996backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 47c | 175$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…2d46backed No | 49c | 164.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes | 45c | 157.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…b6debacked No | 65c | 153.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -6.5wins | -0.59per pick | 68cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 54c | 153.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -11.0wins | -0.33per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 152.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.