Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70cdc92881a74fa13b6d861aae79f3b153989f29b285f234bd8be08f723812a9

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 29, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,950,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,573,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,950,685 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa579…aad0backed Yes	1c	176,331$1,906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,905.64	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3252…8588backed Yes	3c	105,290$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd517…5f34backed Yes	1c	104,052$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368.77	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes	1c	100,569$1,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,192.78	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes	0c	58,367$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.11	88	17%15 W · 73 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34d2…75a8backed Yes	3c	50,000$1,609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,609.07	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	1c	35,000$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.22	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes	1c	32,787$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.01	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes	1c	32,000$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5fc…b579backed Yes	2c	29,567$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaed…fd99backed Yes	1c	27,155$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes	2c	24,975$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d41…2dfabacked Yes	1c	24,668$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.17	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes	1c	24,242$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5495…d542backed Yes	2c	21,940$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.17	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a52…99dabacked Yes	3c	19,541$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes	1c	18,540$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.83	135	32.6%44 W · 91 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes	1c	18,462$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes	1c	14,914$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	41	2.4%1 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes	3c	14,589$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.72	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc37c…cd7ebacked Yes	4c	14,043$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.78	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	1c	12,889$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.03	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5426…00abbacked Yes	4c	11,743$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…53e6backed Yes	3c	11,248$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	0c	11,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+86.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c6…da07backed Yes	0c	10,425$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccee…f36dbacked Yes	0c	10,385$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…2e40backed Yes	2c	10,101$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes	2c	10,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaed…ae9ebacked Yes	1c	10,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes	1c	9,086$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.22	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	+5.8wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	2c	8,499$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.67	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec8e…a339backed Yes	1c	8,333$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x456c…7025backed Yes	1c	8,333$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…b34ebacked Yes	1c	8,000$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.5	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	2c	7,905$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.69	62	3.2%2 W · 60 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes	1c	7,436$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes	1c	7,361$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e9…f0f9backed Yes	1c	7,225$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.34	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb26…984cbacked Yes	1c	7,219$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes	2c	6,712$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x068e…7f47backed Yes	2c	6,458$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bcb…0bf7backed Yes	3c	6,444$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c6…50f9backed Yes	2c	6,072$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes	3c	6,016$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3960…0975backed Yes	1c	5,979$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.75	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes	2c	5,978$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.32	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	1c	5,871$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.43	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21be…457bbacked Yes	3c	5,770$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,669$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.55	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc0…af70backed Yes	1c	5,659$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc736…373fbacked Yes	3c	5,419$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes	1c	5,272$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	164	17.7%29 W · 135 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb06…250abacked Yes	4c	5,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fe…8509backed Yes	2c	4,782$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29c…3c89backed Yes	1c	4,611$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes	4c	4,547$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.97	77	32.5%25 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes	1c	4,545$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	5%1 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6494…5b94backed Yes	3c	4,472$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes	1c	4,319$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.42	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b2…4897backed Yes	3c	4,308$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	14cpaid	-94.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes	2c	4,288$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.33	56	10.7%6 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-65%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadd3…1189backed Yes	2c	4,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	4,126$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.05	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe617…51bcbacked Yes	0c	4,100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x747b…5e7abacked Yes	1c	4,100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes	0c	3,871$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	333	37.5%125 W · 208 L	+12.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x978e…8e24backed Yes	1c	3,811$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	56	7.1%4 W · 52 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+99.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b9…0fc6backed Yes	1c	3,763$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-67%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes	2c	3,755$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.19	72	0%0 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb969…089ebacked Yes	1c	3,653$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b00…7765backed Yes	1c	3,493$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.9	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b0…aa12backed Yes	1c	3,478$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-87%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc04c…d350backed Yes	3c	3,358$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.06	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-90.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b28…5fe4backed Yes	2c	3,333$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf92…5eaebacked Yes	1c	3,278$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8687…35c6backed Yes	3c	3,162$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e1…670abacked Yes	3c	3,119$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc26…cc42backed Yes	2c	3,091$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.68	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	2c	3,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	89	20.2%18 W · 71 L	+8.2wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf056…a080backed Yes	3c	3,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.75	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	1c	3,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	421	20.9%88 W · 333 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…4f81backed Yes	2c	2,931$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5b…f360backed Yes	4c	2,857$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes	3c	2,627$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb74…ae29backed Yes	3c	2,607$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	171	28.7%49 W · 122 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	2,600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.8	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	2c	2,600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.2	147	7.5%11 W · 136 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd1…8d29backed Yes	1c	2,507$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9586…8320backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec5c…14f1backed Yes	1c	2,417$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	2c	2,411$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	144	2.8%4 W · 140 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefee…1c08backed Yes	2c	2,378$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…24b5backed Yes	3c	2,299$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.93	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x366f…5d42backed Yes	4c	2,271$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30a1…a9c5backed Yes	1c	2,146$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51f…e9c2backed Yes	1c	2,143$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd92c…f57bbacked Yes	1c	2,120$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5642…8cddbacked Yes	3c	2,033$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes	1c	2,030$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	61	1.6%1 W · 60 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event