TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,942,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,407,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,942,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,358 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c866,688$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.948610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes1c820,243$7,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,983.253240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes2c772,247$17,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,348.9413823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes2c705,208$11,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,785.254010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes2c679,646$13,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,586.1435631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes1c672,269$5,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,315.3910417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes2c574,524$11,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,940.976132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8545…ada5backed Yes1c204,124$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes0c200,300$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.43720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33ac…9334backed Yes5c199,999$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+95.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fba…433abacked Yes2c168,688$3,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,718.581428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes3c147,779$4,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,852.833810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes2c124,149$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.552512%3 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+116.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes5c121,839$5,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,779.587732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae4…8ca3backed Yes4c112,442$4,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,028.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes2c112,284$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.48430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c109,499$2,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,561.06456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d1…4e28backed Yes6c109,371$7,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,042.621752.9%9 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+184.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe8dd…bd9dbacked Yes0c105,210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211d…64febacked Yes1c99,134$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.51040%4 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick11cpaid+428.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes2c95,151$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.374420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c95,000$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9757618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes2c91,335$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.242524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x820c…605ebacked Yes3c84,940$2,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes0c79,440$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.5243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes6c71,451$4,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,536.244835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddcc…1c43backed Yes2c70,174$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.2930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec7…f536backed Yes3c69,091$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0623438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes2c68,477$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.462910.3%3 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes1c63,000$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511b…be35backed Yes2c62,847$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.021450%7 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+111.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes1c61,261$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.92200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes4c57,776$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.314513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fc8…7f4bbacked Yes2c50,748$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.32119%4 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9360…8dd7backed Yes4c50,732$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.25616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc033…c3e2backed Yes2c50,667$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes2c50,181$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.81254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes3c50,157$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.097423%17 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee27…c5e2backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa10e…e25bbacked Yes2c46,466$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…c70ebacked Yes4c46,034$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.36110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…1527backed Yes1c45,000$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x046c…7e24backed Yes2c42,995$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes0c42,960$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.453237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes2c42,728$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.2715230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes7c41,942$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8001942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfce1…98e3backed Yes2c37,551$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.371533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2747…8d20backed Yes0c35,778$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes3c35,000$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1965347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes0c34,290$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.291711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-77.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes2c33,290$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.68412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4790…30f4backed Yes2c32,985$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.0770%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes4c30,331$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.531414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes1c30,084$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.284920.4%10 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked Yes2c29,563$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.962821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes53c28,401$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+79.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c28,350$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4227311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef48…ef15backed Yes6c28,074$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3020…58f9backed Yes3c27,767$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001540%6 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x577f…07ebbacked Yes4c26,926$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.562512%3 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c25,389$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.919119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes8c23,872$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked Yes1c22,469$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.26911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…a1c0backed Yes10c21,815$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,11510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes6c21,141$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2221915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b17…3117backed Yes8c20,786$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7002317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435e…0f1fbacked Yes1c20,477$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.07742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick15cpaid+43.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca72…946dbacked Yes1c20,348$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes0c20,334$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.172619.2%5 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick7cpaid+212.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b5e…7abbbacked Yes6c20,107$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes1c20,087$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+428.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes2c20,080$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629f…6babbacked Yes2c20,066$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401180%0 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…ed20backed Yes1c20,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…cb54backed Yes2c20,000$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.52020%4 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes8c19,806$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.49827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Yes11c19,700$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0993915.4%6 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No78c19,328$15,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,177.6212650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76a9…ee87backed Yes2c19,233$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.35922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes5c19,221$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.038845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes1c19,015$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215205%1 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+257%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3199…fdf3backed Yes2c19,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2852817.9%5 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+120.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf453…2547backed Yes2c18,461$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.561216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4354…89a9backed Yes2c18,413$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.572512%3 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes6c18,184$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.7219930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b6b0backed Yes2c18,044$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c18,001$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.011128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd902…cdb9backed Yes2c17,980$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.524242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes2c17,554$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.745246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd024…dc82backed Yes0c17,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3490%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea2…9ad4backed Yes4c16,675$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid-26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d56…4950backed Yes6c16,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+82.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ff5…3804backed Yes26c16,582$4,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,381.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc622…bbedbacked Yes6c16,467$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988850%4 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+378.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x080f…077abacked Yes2c16,254$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.391030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f19…d209backed Yes6c16,179$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-76.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03de…5f73backed Yes1c15,970$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4528…99e2backed Yes4c15,918$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.661844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes2c15,611$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.