Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5535e41e78edb730150ac1a497fbef7cef536022168771cb51a6b702705ebb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,942,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,407,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,942,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,358 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 866,688$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.94 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 1c | 820,243$7,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,983.25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 2c | 772,247$17,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,348.94 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 2c | 705,208$11,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,785.25 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 2c | 679,646$13,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,586.14 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 672,269$5,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,315.39 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 2c | 574,524$11,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,940.97 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 1c | 204,124$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 0c | 200,300$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.43 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…9334backed Yes | 5c | 199,999$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 2c | 168,688$3,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,718.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 3c | 147,779$4,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,852.83 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 124,149$1,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.55 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 5c | 121,839$5,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,779.58 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae4…8ca3backed Yes | 4c | 112,442$4,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,028.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 2c | 112,284$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.48 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 109,499$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.06 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 6c | 109,371$7,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,042.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…bd9dbacked Yes | 0c | 105,210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…64febacked Yes | 1c | 99,134$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +428.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 2c | 95,151$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.37 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 95,000$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 2c | 91,335$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.24 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…605ebacked Yes | 3c | 84,940$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 79,440$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.52 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 6c | 71,451$4,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,536.24 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddcc…1c43backed Yes | 2c | 70,174$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 3c | 69,091$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 2c | 68,477$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.46 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 63,000$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…be35backed Yes | 2c | 62,847$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 1c | 61,261$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.92 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…7151backed Yes | 4c | 57,776$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,273.31 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…7f4bbacked Yes | 2c | 50,748$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…8dd7backed Yes | 4c | 50,732$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc033…c3e2backed Yes | 2c | 50,667$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 2c | 50,181$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.81 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 3c | 50,157$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.09 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…c5e2backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…e25bbacked Yes | 2c | 46,466$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 4c | 46,034$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…1527backed Yes | 1c | 45,000$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7e24backed Yes | 2c | 42,995$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 0c | 42,960$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 2c | 42,728$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.27 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes | 7c | 41,942$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed Yes | 2c | 37,551$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…8d20backed Yes | 0c | 35,778$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 3c | 35,000$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes | 0c | 34,290$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 2c | 33,290$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.68 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…30f4backed Yes | 2c | 32,985$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 4c | 30,331$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.53 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes | 1c | 30,084$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.28 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…348ebacked Yes | 2c | 29,563$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.96 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes | 53c | 28,401$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 1c | 28,350$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef48…ef15backed Yes | 6c | 28,074$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…58f9backed Yes | 3c | 27,767$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 4c | 26,926$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.56 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 25,389$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.9 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 8c | 23,872$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Yes | 1c | 22,469$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…a1c0backed Yes | 10c | 21,815$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 6c | 21,141$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…3117backed Yes | 8c | 20,786$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…0f1fbacked Yes | 1c | 20,477$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca72…946dbacked Yes | 1c | 20,348$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,334$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5e…7abbbacked Yes | 6c | 20,107$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 1c | 20,087$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 2c | 20,080$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 2c | 20,066$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…ed20backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…cb54backed Yes | 2c | 20,000$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 19,806$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.49 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed Yes | 11c | 19,700$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 78c | 19,328$15,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,177.62 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a9…ee87backed Yes | 2c | 19,233$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 5c | 19,221$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.03 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes | 1c | 19,015$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +257%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 2c | 19,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…2547backed Yes | 2c | 18,461$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 18,413$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.57 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 6c | 18,184$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.72 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b6b0backed Yes | 2c | 18,044$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 18,001$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.01 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed Yes | 2c | 17,980$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.52 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 2c | 17,554$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.74 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…dc82backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Yes | 4c | 16,675$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…4950backed Yes | 6c | 16,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…3804backed Yes | 26c | 16,582$4,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,381.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…bbedbacked Yes | 6c | 16,467$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +378.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…077abacked Yes | 2c | 16,254$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…d209backed Yes | 6c | 16,179$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…5f73backed Yes | 1c | 15,970$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…99e2backed Yes | 4c | 15,918$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,611$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.