Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7320a31f5b0babc0c2c99e8a14d120f577affb38793379307b6f56efdb849f49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,565,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,633,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,565,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 902 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 72c | 124,829$89,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,760.28 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 71c | 90,441$63,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,966.1 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed Yes | 24c | 67,844$15,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,891.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 70c | 45,243$31,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,492.66 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 0c | 43,967$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 43,584$31,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,118.24 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 31c | 41,132$12,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,393.54 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 29c | 34,229$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,229.3 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 26c | 32,863$8,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,387.33 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 32c | 32,052$10,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,767.88 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 67c | 28,270$18,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,820.5 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 39c | 24,403$9,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,888.67 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 35c | 20,680$7,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,535.12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf97…3b28backed Yes | 30c | 17,964$5,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,623.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed No | 54c | 17,186$9,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,202.43 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…0cf3backed Yes | 35c | 15,549$5,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,165.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…72d5backed Yes | 28c | 14,923$4,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,727.82 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 22c | 14,799$3,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,484.3 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes | 22c | 14,000$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,920 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…6ae2backed Yes | 30c | 13,566$4,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,471.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 27cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…ddd2backed Yes | 37c | 13,302$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,341.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 32c | 13,117$4,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,919.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 70c | 12,915$9,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,031.86 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 11,319$8,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,739.01 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…8ee9backed No | 71c | 11,193$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 31c | 11,033$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,613.77 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 75c | 10,864$8,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.39 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 33c | 10,582$3,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,096.5 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 29c | 10,111$2,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,219.05 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 79c | 10,000$7,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,900 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…d64abacked Yes | 24c | 10,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,600.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed No | 70c | 9,927$6,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,952.6 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 71c | 9,445$6,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,705.77 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 41c | 9,208$3,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,404.75 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…ebbbbacked Yes | 22c | 9,052$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,051.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…15c9backed Yes | 23c | 8,821$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,823.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 34cpaid | +282.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…2031backed Yes | 36c | 8,717$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,616.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 65c | 8,683$5,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,644.07 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes | 40c | 8,411$3,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,029.85 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 35c | 7,749$2,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,024.17 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0809…b2f4backed No | 78c | 7,738$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked No | 68c | 7,540$5,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,142.53 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 79c | 7,500$5,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,924.99 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 7,488$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 77c | 7,434$5,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,742.61 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 35c | 7,059$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,618.62 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 10c | 6,926$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.1 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 24c | 6,696$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,088.1 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 72c | 6,194$4,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,478.37 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 2c | 6,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…bbedbacked Yes | 45c | 5,944$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,268.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +378.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 67c | 5,920$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,988.38 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 36c | 5,672$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,622.45 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…673fbacked Yes | 34c | 5,538$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,635.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 28c | 5,360$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,859.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 44c | 5,090$2,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.82 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 3c | 5,046$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,650 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.97 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249.95 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 78c | 4,888$3,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,812.63 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…9d40backed No | 2c | 4,868$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 4,772$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,175.78 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 54c | 4,703$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,539.72 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…977cbacked Yes | 28c | 4,653$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,333.67 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 35c | 4,617$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,001.23 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 70c | 4,500$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Yes | 37c | 4,405$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5168…68adbacked Yes | 35c | 4,301$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,778.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 33c | 4,193$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,807.04 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 80c | 4,166$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 68c | 4,161$2,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.46 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 35c | 4,146$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695.34 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 34c | 4,008$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 34c | 3,929$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.57 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2f13backed Yes | 33c | 3,841$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…1631backed Yes | 31c | 3,653$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,529.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe08…4516backed Yes | 35c | 3,322$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,148$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.91 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3433…aa9ebacked Yes | 51c | 3,135$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 71c | 3,096$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.92 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 28c | 3,055$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…3408backed No | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.98 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79f…5558backed Yes | 35c | 2,898$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…4a83backed Yes | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,692$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…fa35backed Yes | 38c | 2,653$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed No | 76c | 2,636$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…6fe9backed No | 78c | 2,564$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 1c | 2,514$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 36c | 2,509$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.48 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…ff23backed No | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 27c | 2,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 38c | 2,481$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.83 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes | 23c | 2,436$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.04 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…041fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,385$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 66c | 2,305$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.24 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.