TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,565,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,633,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,565,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 902 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No72c124,829$89,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,760.2814821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No71c90,441$63,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,966.135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68fe…8792backed Yes24c67,844$15,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,891.17966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+44.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No70c45,243$31,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,492.6610335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3578…d9febacked No0c43,967$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c43,584$31,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,118.2464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes31c41,132$12,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,393.5412038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes29c34,229$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,229.36132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes26c32,863$8,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,387.3319531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes32c32,052$10,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,767.8815541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked No67c28,270$18,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,820.57732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes39c24,403$9,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,888.676045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes35c20,680$7,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,535.125545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf97…3b28backed Yes30c17,964$5,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,623.82560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick19cpaid+118.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe24f…bae5backed No54c17,186$9,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,202.432321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2db…0cf3backed Yes35c15,549$5,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,165.684100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+118.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51b7…72d5backed Yes28c14,923$4,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,727.821080%8 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+119.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes22c14,799$3,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,484.38150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes22c14,000$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,9201338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7fd…6ae2backed Yes30c13,566$4,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,471.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+176.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e55…ddd2backed Yes37c13,302$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,341.674100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes32c13,117$4,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,919.521553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+74.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked No70c12,915$9,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,031.865942.4%25 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No77c11,319$8,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,739.0128750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c0…8ee9backed No71c11,193$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+156.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes31c11,033$3,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,613.7742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes75c10,864$8,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.394637%17 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes33c10,582$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,096.516743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes29c10,111$2,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,219.0516553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed No79c10,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,9003138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d7…d64abacked Yes24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,600.12742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed No70c9,927$6,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,952.66045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No71c9,445$6,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,705.7736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes41c9,208$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,404.751794.1%16 W · 1 L+7.3wins+0.43per pick51cpaid+118.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x6391…ebbbbacked Yes22c9,052$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,051.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+156.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17a5…15c9backed Yes23c8,821$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,823.17785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.51per pick34cpaid+282.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x55db…2031backed Yes36c8,717$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,616.682759.3%16 W · 11 L+7.3wins+0.27per pick32cpaid+87.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed No65c8,683$5,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,644.074535.6%16 W · 29 L-8.1wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-34.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes40c8,411$3,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,029.852429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed Yes35c7,749$2,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,024.173933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0809…b2f4backed No78c7,738$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked No68c7,540$5,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,142.531323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-53.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No79c7,500$5,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,924.999145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No1c7,488$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed No77c7,434$5,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,742.614841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes35c7,059$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,618.6214039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No10c6,926$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.121531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes24c6,696$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,088.15964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked No72c6,194$4,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,478.379736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No2c6,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1309051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc622…bbedbacked Yes45c5,944$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,268.93850%4 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+378.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No67c5,920$3,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,988.385834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes36c5,672$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,622.459441.5%39 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5823…673fbacked Yes34c5,538$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,635.981050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed Yes28c5,360$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,859.19850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes44c5,090$2,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.8212944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed No3c5,046$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.385046%23 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes28c5,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6003917.9%7 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Yes27c5,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6501361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.24per pick37cpaid+114.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No78c5,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.9716638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes35c5,000$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.9535355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No78c4,888$3,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,812.633729.7%11 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-52.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1dd8…9d40backed No2c4,868$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes33c4,772$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,175.7889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No54c4,703$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.725745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a3c…977cbacked Yes28c4,653$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.672560%15 W · 10 L+6.4wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+95.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes35c4,617$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.233844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No70c4,500$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15034143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x188e…70d8backed Yes37c4,405$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.992272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5168…68adbacked Yes35c4,301$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,778.08580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+94.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes33c4,193$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.044161%25 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No80c4,166$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3334540%18 W · 27 L-10.5wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-38.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No68c4,161$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,846.469832.7%32 W · 66 L-14.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes35c4,146$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,695.3435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes34c4,008$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.423525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd721…e215backed Yes34c3,929$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.571788.2%15 W · 2 L+10.6wins+0.62per pick26cpaid+259.4%equal weight78+0.25 edge/pick
0x050d…2f13backed Yes33c3,841$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.394100%4 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x37a4…1631backed Yes31c3,653$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.46450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe08…4516backed Yes35c3,322$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.091030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes22c3,148$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.9145843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3433…aa9ebacked Yes51c3,135$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No71c3,096$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9222927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes28c3,055$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.42330.4%7 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+48.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes35c3,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9502100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+147%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e32…3408backed No72c3,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.982740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83e0…53e6backed Yes23c3,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.988230.5%25 W · 57 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf79f…5558backed Yes35c2,898$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+188.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4477…4a83backed Yes37c2,703$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+140.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c2,692$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.665071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Yes38c2,653$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed No76c2,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003826.3%10 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2366…6fe9backed No78c2,564$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78a2…6658backed No1c2,514$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.091414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes36c2,509$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.483548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…ff23backed No79c2,500$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick66cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes27c2,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8252458.3%14 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+71.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes38c2,481$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.833770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4eeb…cf91backed Yes23c2,436$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.043033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a6…041fbacked Yes27c2,385$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.64560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+198.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No66c2,305$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.2431241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.