TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,855,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,883,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,855,990 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes1c878,871$4,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,695.342218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes1c580,049$3,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,940.192524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes0c329,043$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.73810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes0c212,047$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.06200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c202,819$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.068610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes1c152,226$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0506132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes0c130,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6e…8931backed Yes1c115,956$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c111,099$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.78817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes1c93,940$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.25456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcf…8bb4backed Yes1c66,414$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes0c61,304$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c45,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes1c44,177$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2683917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c44,023$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.2517111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes1c43,442$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.09430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…ed20backed Yes1c37,537$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…d89dbacked Yes3c31,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55bd…45e9backed Yes1c24,300$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes0c22,830$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.17611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes0c22,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes1c21,532$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13216417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…5cc3backed Yes0c20,091$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c19,889$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes1c19,600$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.233337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes1c18,610$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.88922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes1c18,111$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-87.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01d1…12a4backed Yes1c16,717$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005038%19 W · 31 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+99.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4703…d60fbacked Yes1c16,689$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412b…85b2backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4863…0547backed Yes1c16,599$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.391225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcffc…839abacked Yes4c16,320$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.71425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2f…8f01backed Yes1c15,779$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes3c15,625$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-58.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes1c15,179$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes2c14,934$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.552236.4%8 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+191.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ce7…ea15backed Yes1c14,032$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cf…cf8ebacked Yes2c13,009$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+224.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes1c12,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c4…f9fcbacked Yes1c11,299$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes1c11,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558626.7%23 W · 63 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+42.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes1c9,983$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.66370%0 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64af…3dd8backed Yes0c9,020$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ff…5946backed Yes1c8,889$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd74d…ebdfbacked Yes1c8,857$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes1c8,800$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.22810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c00…37ecbacked Yes1c8,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes1c8,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2479…fb6fbacked Yes2c8,259$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x362e…fa25backed Yes4c7,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb63…9097backed Yes0c7,349$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c7,105$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.05220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf1…c4aebacked Yes1c6,767$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15eb…86b3backed Yes3c6,703$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac12…7f97backed Yes1c6,625$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes4c6,390$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba6f…fd5bbacked Yes2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes1c5,985$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c5…2a75backed Yes1c5,767$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes4c5,656$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.17600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes1c5,352$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.07130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes0c5,306$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c5,145$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed Yes1c5,084$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305151%26 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629f…6babbacked Yes0c5,033$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2180%0 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes1c4,899$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes1c4,833$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cc0…ebd5backed Yes1c4,798$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b2…4897backed Yes0c4,568$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.27254%1 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f7…8c0bbacked Yes6c4,299$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c4,100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.742329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes2c4,055$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.532917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x052e…de9abacked Yes1c4,045$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes1c4,002$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.36180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e8c…03abbacked Yes3c3,964$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba5…845fbacked Yes1c3,957$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31b…8c03backed Yes1c3,908$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf404…be62backed Yes1c3,768$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c7…c2f8backed Yes1c3,700$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d5…a42ebacked Yes4c3,600$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-52.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a58…dd44backed Yes1c3,513$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3424.8%2 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+137.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a4…e658backed Yes1c3,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28290%0 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ab…ee71backed Yes3c3,490$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes3c3,385$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.621526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f92…a08ebacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes1c3,050$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes1c3,032$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x83b0…aa12backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15287.1%2 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8005…d004backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98bf…c046backed Yes2c3,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63166.3%1 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes0c2,946$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe617…51bcbacked Yes1c2,940$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64358.6%3 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-83.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x119e…a24fbacked Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc357…6646backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da9…78c4backed Yes1c2,689$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes1c2,687$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.575433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes3c2,678$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0715541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x322a…4406backed Yes1c2,638$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.