Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c75d784a1595477270d81e764cf5b2b61f9a149fc6d5c7b4b040f6f44870946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,855,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,883,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,855,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 1c | 878,871$4,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,695.34 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 1c | 580,049$3,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,940.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 0c | 329,043$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.7 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 0c | 212,047$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.06 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 202,819$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.06 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 1c | 152,226$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 0c | 130,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 1c | 115,956$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 111,099$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.7 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 1c | 93,940$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.25 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcf…8bb4backed Yes | 1c | 66,414$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 0c | 61,304$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 1c | 44,177$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 44,023$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.25 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 43,442$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.09 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…ed20backed Yes | 1c | 37,537$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…d89dbacked Yes | 3c | 31,125$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…45e9backed Yes | 1c | 24,300$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 0c | 22,830$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 21,532$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…5cc3backed Yes | 0c | 20,091$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,889$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 1c | 19,600$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.2 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,610$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes | 1c | 18,111$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 1c | 16,717$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…d60fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,689$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412b…85b2backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…0547backed Yes | 1c | 16,599$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…839abacked Yes | 4c | 16,320$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…8f01backed Yes | 1c | 15,779$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes | 3c | 15,625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 2c | 14,934$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.55 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…ea15backed Yes | 1c | 14,032$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…cf8ebacked Yes | 2c | 13,009$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…f9fcbacked Yes | 1c | 11,299$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,983$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64af…3dd8backed Yes | 0c | 9,020$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ff…5946backed Yes | 1c | 8,889$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 8,857$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes | 1c | 8,800$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c00…37ecbacked Yes | 1c | 8,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 1c | 8,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…fb6fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,259$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…fa25backed Yes | 4c | 7,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed Yes | 0c | 7,349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…c4aebacked Yes | 1c | 6,767$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…86b3backed Yes | 3c | 6,703$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…7f97backed Yes | 1c | 6,625$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 4c | 6,390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…fd5bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 1c | 5,985$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…2a75backed Yes | 1c | 5,767$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,656$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.17 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,352$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 0c | 5,306$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 5,145$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 1c | 5,084$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 0c | 5,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 1c | 4,899$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 1c | 4,833$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc0…ebd5backed Yes | 1c | 4,798$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…4897backed Yes | 0c | 4,568$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…8c0bbacked Yes | 6c | 4,299$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 4,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 2c | 4,055$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.53 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…de9abacked Yes | 1c | 4,045$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,002$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01f…574ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8c…03abbacked Yes | 3c | 3,964$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…845fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,957$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…8c03backed Yes | 1c | 3,908$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…be62backed Yes | 1c | 3,768$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…c2f8backed Yes | 1c | 3,700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…a42ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 1c | 3,513$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ab…ee71backed Yes | 3c | 3,490$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes | 3c | 3,385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f92…a08ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 1c | 3,032$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…aa12backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -87%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…d004backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c046backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,946$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,940$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x119e…a24fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…6646backed Yes | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da9…78c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,689$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,687$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 3c | 2,678$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…4406backed Yes | 1c | 2,638$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.