Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb6eccd872f55e23da6aaf653a3460299237ebdd0a71bdb58681685fd95eb05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,743,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,765,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,743,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 414 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 3c | 58,946$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.74 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 4c | 41,069$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 3c | 32,607$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.64 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 3c | 32,530$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.61 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed Yes | 4c | 27,020$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes | 3c | 26,940$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.81 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 2c | 26,324$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.74 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…8320backed Yes | 4c | 26,000$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 4c | 21,583$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 4c | 19,500$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 7c | 19,335$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…7e1cbacked Yes | 7c | 18,825$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 3c | 16,272$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.6 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…29c4backed Yes | 3c | 15,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 3c | 13,926$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.54 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 2c | 13,114$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.55 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 12,151$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 11,689$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.28 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…3e62backed Yes | 5c | 10,975$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…c3fdbacked Yes | 10c | 10,800$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…cb53backed Yes | 4c | 10,798$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 3c | 10,137$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.56 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…6244backed Yes | 5c | 10,023$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…10febacked Yes | 1c | 9,936$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c3…cceebacked Yes | 11c | 9,840$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 6c | 8,743$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 0c | 8,710$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…53e9backed Yes | 3c | 8,521$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…1713backed Yes | 8c | 8,495$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 8,489$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.92 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,079$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…271dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,055$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 7c | 8,052$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.87 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 3c | 7,875$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.45 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 7,839$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.62 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad36…b67bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,805$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 5c | 6,964$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.62 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 5c | 6,481$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…28cebacked Yes | 4c | 6,439$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a2…fda0backed Yes | 4c | 6,379$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 6,319$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.94 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…8f66backed Yes | 3c | 6,089$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 6c | 5,976$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.12 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 8c | 5,936$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 4c | 5,745$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 5c | 5,687$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.55 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed Yes | 3c | 5,682$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.19 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 5c | 5,597$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.16 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 3c | 5,552$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb863…d1c9backed Yes | 6c | 5,317$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 5,200$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde29…f202backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…97b7backed Yes | 5c | 4,981$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 3c | 4,900$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 4,832$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…c504backed Yes | 4c | 4,817$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…fe79backed Yes | 6c | 4,689$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 4c | 4,547$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.7 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…b1debacked Yes | 4c | 4,455$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,442$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.53 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,400$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.68 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 2c | 4,311$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de9…3dd2backed Yes | 5c | 4,223$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 4,207$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.96 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…722bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,194$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed Yes | 4c | 4,100$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.11 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c4d6backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.16 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…3a18backed Yes | 3c | 3,998$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 4c | 3,907$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 3,858$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 3c | 3,718$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 6c | 3,663$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.38 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…7ec5backed Yes | 7c | 3,571$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…180ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,512$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…0b5cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,505$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 3c | 3,503$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes | 5c | 3,463$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 2c | 3,389$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,352$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,340$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.78 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,333$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…59e0backed Yes | 3c | 3,315$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 3c | 3,215$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…d7b5backed Yes | 8c | 3,202$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,172$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…f3fabacked Yes | 7c | 3,034$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…ca8dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,018$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 3c | 3,013$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824f…e635backed Yes | 4c | 2,957$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…2aa6backed Yes | 3c | 2,952$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 5c | 2,951$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 2,943$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…3747backed Yes | 4c | 2,902$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…35a7backed Yes | 5c | 2,875$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…638fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,874$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…66ffbacked Yes | 4c | 2,857$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…68e1backed Yes | 5c | 2,803$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.