TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$539,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$607,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $539,454 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x614d…1546backed Yes37c50,293$18,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,597.9913850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No66c38,957$25,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,688.4414821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3578…d9febacked No0c31,995$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes79c18,207$14,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,847.224057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No65c12,457$8,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,134.013030%9 W · 21 L-9.6wins-0.32per pick62cpaid-55.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb492…1df3backed Yes52c12,049$6,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,827.211650%8 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked No72c10,475$7,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,540.321546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9332…0f89backed Yes80c9,895$7,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.45933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes44c9,764$4,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,442.826045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked No51c9,231$4,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,727.147732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes35c8,840$3,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,734.282429.2%7 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes51c8,661$4,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,271.5915541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…82d9backed Yes35c7,877$2,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,088.3785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick51cpaid+64.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xabe1…7f9abacked No0c7,487$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c7,322$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.095071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes52c6,696$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,222.3812944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes62c6,566$4,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.35545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No63c6,525$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.6212038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd8…9d40backed No2c5,026$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2814…68dbbacked Yes30c4,990$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.063342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6f…f6eebacked Yes45c4,550$2,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,491.991181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+40.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes79c4,409$3,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.9813360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd3b2…2171backed Yes46c4,200$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2662369.6%16 W · 7 L+6.1wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+99.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x430c…0cb2backed Yes68c3,868$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes33c3,457$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.5827643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435e…0f1fbacked Yes50c3,307$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.07742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick15cpaid+43.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes44c3,257$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.113617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked No58c3,169$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.769736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No64c3,058$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.318929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba7…434cbacked Yes44c2,856$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.432360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c2,779$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.8267841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa52f…8897backed Yes44c2,750$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+87.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No56c2,750$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.9610335.9%37 W · 66 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes39c2,700$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6475151%26 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes39c2,585$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.6142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a4…ea52backed Yes39c2,574$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.73560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+90.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed No25c2,500$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6256056.7%34 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No25c2,488$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.0950130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes43c2,478$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.4835819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6d3…161cbacked Yes37c2,423$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.744748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdad9…6b63backed Yes80c2,401$1,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf80e…2af8backed Yes31c2,052$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.78875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+68.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fe6…b39ebacked No48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9601729.4%5 W · 12 L-5.6wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-58.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Yes80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4006253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08035355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed No68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.981435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes41c1,976$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.785433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b72…bb38backed No72c1,933$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+36%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No2c1,909$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.189051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa8…05f1backed Yes48c1,894$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca7…52e3backed No54c1,848$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked No51c1,831$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.372828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes41c1,806$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.134238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x493a…4d85backed Yes44c1,748$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.05875%6 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.47per pick28cpaid+123.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No66c1,676$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.7164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7583…6d97backed Yes49c1,632$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.261369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+50.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes48c1,629$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.775056%28 W · 22 L+9.1wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+138.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa92a…39bdbacked No54c1,601$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.191764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x511b…be35backed Yes32c1,557$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.121450%7 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+111.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb959…709ebacked Yes48c1,486$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.741376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes72c1,464$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.151794.1%16 W · 1 L+7.3wins+0.43per pick51cpaid+118.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes44c1,414$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.0120336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes80c1,340$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No49c1,306$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6406462.5%40 W · 24 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes44c1,295$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.555246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f34…1269backed Yes30c1,227$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+66.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9331…b246backed Yes31c1,204$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+132.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8370…f352backed Yes78c1,120$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.352540%10 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No62c1,117$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.1826138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes35c1,100$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71531241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c0…a68dbacked Yes44c1,100$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6162653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No61c1,099$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.0315626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes45c1,080$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5945964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked Yes47c1,065$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.65954.2%32 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6526…cb35backed Yes33c1,055$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.55944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa829…9479backed Yes35c1,018$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+88.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3847…5c87backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6901662.5%10 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.31per pick31cpaid+108.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c1,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.54928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes44c988.1$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.874161%25 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc38…6b17backed Yes80c987.48$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes41c967.82$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.8224149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No40c952.25$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.0158927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bad…a5b2backed Yes30c898.2$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+133.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No67c892.33$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa5e1…960ebacked No53c875.54$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.33119.1%1 W · 10 L-5.5wins-0.50per pick59cpaid-54.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6608…35d3backed Yes43c816.42$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.363351.5%17 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+62.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed No1c799.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x055b…5c5fbacked Yes52c767.04$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.041060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1076…4f8bbacked Yes28c714.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.292951.7%15 W · 14 L+7.1wins+0.25per pick27cpaid+74.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No64c702.8$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.139942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes42c698.72$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.1310354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fbe…8215backed No73c686.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+111.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcce8…4197backed Yes31c647.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.72572%18 W · 7 L+6.6wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+142.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4927…22a0backed Yes31c645.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.161266.7%8 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+160.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked No68c626$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.684652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked Yes32c611.39$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.392524%6 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes42c602.42$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.1689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes30c600.05$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.768433.3%28 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5739…0126backed Yes80c574.98$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.