Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb70ddf71d1bdc0268016fb8e00099fc8f533c59ef1f13231d0af5fad0fbb34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $539,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $607,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $539,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 37c | 50,293$18,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,597.99 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 66c | 38,957$25,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,688.44 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 0c | 31,995$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 79c | 18,207$14,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,847.22 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 65c | 12,457$8,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,134.01 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…1df3backed Yes | 52c | 12,049$6,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,827.21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 72c | 10,475$7,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,540.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…0f89backed Yes | 80c | 9,895$7,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 44c | 9,764$4,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,442.82 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 51c | 9,231$4,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,727.14 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes | 35c | 8,840$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,734.28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 51c | 8,661$4,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,271.59 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…82d9backed Yes | 35c | 7,877$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,088.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…7f9abacked No | 0c | 7,487$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 7,322$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 52c | 6,696$3,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,222.38 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 62c | 6,566$4,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.3 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 63c | 6,525$4,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,089.62 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…9d40backed No | 2c | 5,026$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…68dbbacked Yes | 30c | 4,990$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,493.06 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…f6eebacked Yes | 45c | 4,550$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 79c | 4,409$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.98 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 46c | 4,200$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x430c…0cb2backed Yes | 68c | 3,868$2,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 33c | 3,457$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.58 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…0f1fbacked Yes | 50c | 3,307$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 44c | 3,257$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.1 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked No | 58c | 3,169$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.76 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 64c | 3,058$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.3 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…434cbacked Yes | 44c | 2,856$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 2,779$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.82 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 44c | 2,750$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 56c | 2,750$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.96 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 39c | 2,700$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 39c | 2,585$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.61 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…ea52backed Yes | 39c | 2,574$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 25c | 2,500$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 25c | 2,488$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.09 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,478$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.48 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…161cbacked Yes | 37c | 2,423$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.74 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…6b63backed Yes | 80c | 2,401$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…2af8backed Yes | 31c | 2,052$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 41c | 1,976$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.78 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…bb38backed No | 72c | 1,933$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 2c | 1,909$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa8…05f1backed Yes | 48c | 1,894$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…52e3backed No | 54c | 1,848$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 51c | 1,831$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.37 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,806$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.13 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x493a…4d85backed Yes | 44c | 1,748$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 1,676$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.71 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…6d97backed Yes | 49c | 1,632$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 48c | 1,629$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.77 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…39bdbacked No | 54c | 1,601$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…be35backed Yes | 32c | 1,557$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…709ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,486$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 72c | 1,464$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.15 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 44c | 1,414$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.01 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 80c | 1,340$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 49c | 1,306$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 44c | 1,295$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.55 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f34…1269backed Yes | 30c | 1,227$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…b246backed Yes | 31c | 1,204$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…f352backed Yes | 78c | 1,120$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 1,117$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.18 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 35c | 1,100$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…a68dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 61c | 1,099$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.03 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 45c | 1,080$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 47c | 1,065$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…cb35backed Yes | 33c | 1,055$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa829…9479backed Yes | 35c | 1,018$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…5c87backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.31per pick | 31cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 1,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 44c | 988.1$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.87 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…6b17backed Yes | 80c | 987.48$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 41c | 967.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.82 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 952.25$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.01 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…a5b2backed Yes | 30c | 898.2$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 67c | 892.33$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…960ebacked No | 53c | 875.54$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -5.5wins | -0.50per pick | 59cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 43c | 816.42$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.36 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 1c | 799.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x055b…5c5fbacked Yes | 52c | 767.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1076…4f8bbacked Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.25per pick | 27cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 64c | 702.8$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.13 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 42c | 698.72$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.13 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…8215backed No | 73c | 686.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…4197backed Yes | 31c | 647.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.7 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +6.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…22a0backed Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked No | 68c | 626$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.68 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…05eabacked Yes | 32c | 611.39$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.39 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 602.42$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.16 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 30c | 600.05$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.76 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…0126backed Yes | 80c | 574.98$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.