Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168959e2c7e997109d9bb7b6dd4c51d8a4f4fb0d8a65eb2b034d29e1240b15e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,517,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,576,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,517,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,072 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 2c | 625,354$15,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,100 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…385abacked Yes | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 429,663$5,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,072.82 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 308,385$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.97 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 1c | 305,933$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.18 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 5c | 230,000$11,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,704.17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 5c | 212,835$10,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,272.34 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 180,726$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.36 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 158,049$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.36 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 6c | 92,025$5,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,802.31 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 83,006$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.44 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…a325backed Yes | 3c | 80,379$2,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 1c | 73,972$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.83 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 1c | 70,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 2c | 69,275$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 3c | 68,462$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.39 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…7151backed Yes | 6c | 64,239$4,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,094.63 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 1c | 61,013$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.34 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 4c | 60,756$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.71 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9654…a94ebacked Yes | 9c | 57,805$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes | 1c | 55,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 1c | 54,739$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.71 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…77e1backed Yes | 18c | 53,923$9,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,642.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 4c | 53,448$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1210backed Yes | 5c | 50,689$2,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 2c | 49,936$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.13 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 15c | 49,320$7,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,451.41 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 5c | 49,036$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.22 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…285fbacked Yes | 0c | 46,703$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 5c | 40,319$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef48…ef15backed Yes | 9c | 37,555$3,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 3c | 34,835$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.96 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…078ebacked Yes | 1c | 33,593$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 32,857$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…99e2backed Yes | 6c | 31,602$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddcc…1c43backed Yes | 2c | 31,502$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…64febacked Yes | 2c | 31,164$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +428.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…5f73backed Yes | 1c | 30,500$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes | 1c | 29,308$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +257%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c2…4d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 28,923$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…6e0dbacked Yes | 3c | 28,500$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 6c | 28,250$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…3117backed Yes | 7c | 27,274$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 27,225$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.85 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a0…fb3cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 5c | 25,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 6c | 24,940$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.31 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…4950backed Yes | 8c | 24,244$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 1c | 23,729$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…be35backed Yes | 4c | 23,620$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 2c | 23,250$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.34 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…8d20backed Yes | 0c | 22,533$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7e24backed Yes | 4c | 22,499$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 16c | 20,499$3,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,253.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…4342backed Yes | 11c | 20,182$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…4fffbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 0c | 19,999$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…d2f2backed Yes | 1c | 19,833$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.29 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes | 4c | 19,092$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 18,962$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…29c4backed Yes | 4c | 17,777$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…eec7backed Yes | 6c | 17,700$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…3599backed Yes | 2c | 17,604$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 12cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…86f0backed Yes | 7c | 17,042$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.69 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…7260backed Yes | 1c | 16,650$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…0616backed Yes | 7c | 16,209$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 10c | 16,000$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.52 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…e96abacked Yes | 2c | 15,398$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8651backed Yes | 9c | 14,934$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.75 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a3…13a7backed Yes | 2c | 14,897$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.98 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 7c | 14,605$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.35 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 14,478$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.67 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…705ebacked Yes | 1c | 14,314$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes | 1c | 14,272$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…8dd7backed Yes | 1c | 14,175$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…edc5backed Yes | 5c | 14,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…e408backed Yes | 8c | 13,699$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8a25backed Yes | 3c | 13,541$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 3c | 13,318$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.43 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a87…be4cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,024$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d49…1067backed Yes | 2c | 12,772$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes | 7c | 12,649$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 7c | 12,514$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.73 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed Yes | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f91…fd4cbacked Yes | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 1c | 12,345$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30c2…ac2fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,100$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 17c | 12,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 14c | 11,996$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.31 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a98…e1e2backed Yes | 3c | 11,805$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806e…07e4backed Yes | 5c | 11,560$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 6c | 11,180$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…6430backed Yes | 5c | 10,875$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…e694backed Yes | 2c | 10,800$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…e7a5backed Yes | 2c | 10,527$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…bedebacked Yes | 0c | 10,313$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 12cpaid | +217.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.