TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,517,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,576,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,517,389 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,072 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1abe…6497backed Yes2c625,354$15,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,1006132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xcd9d…385abacked Yes0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes1c429,663$5,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,072.8210417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c308,385$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.978610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes1c305,933$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,184.18200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes5c230,000$11,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,704.171414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes5c212,835$10,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,272.343810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c180,726$3,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,488.36456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c158,049$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.3619119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes6c92,025$5,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,802.3119531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes2c83,006$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.442512%3 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+116.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3d…a325backed Yes3c80,379$2,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes1c73,972$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.832524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes1c70,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes2c69,275$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2401915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes3c68,462$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.39430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes6c64,239$4,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,094.634513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes1c61,013$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.347423%17 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes4c60,756$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.715433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9654…a94ebacked Yes9c57,805$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes1c55,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5104920.4%10 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes1c54,739$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.711811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick2cpaid+428.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x031d…77e1backed Yes18c53,923$9,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,642.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fba…433abacked Yes4c53,448$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.581428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeff0…1210backed Yes5c50,689$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7721421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec7…f536backed Yes2c49,936$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.133438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes15c49,320$7,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,451.4112038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes5c49,036$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,601.22827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb194…285fbacked Yes0c46,703$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes5c40,319$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.142352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+63.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef48…ef15backed Yes9c37,555$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes3c34,835$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.967311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f86…078ebacked Yes1c33,593$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes1c32,857$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4528…99e2backed Yes6c31,602$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xddcc…1c43backed Yes2c31,502$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.2330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211d…64febacked Yes2c31,164$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7741040%4 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick11cpaid+428.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03de…5f73backed Yes1c30,500$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes1c29,308$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381205%1 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+257%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c2…4d8ebacked Yes0c28,923$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+104.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e5c…6e0dbacked Yes3c28,500$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.5147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43a…94b2backed Yes6c28,250$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8251910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b17…3117backed Yes7c27,274$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9002317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4354…89a9backed Yes1c27,225$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.852512%3 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a0…fb3cbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes5c25,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1803836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes6c24,940$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.3118929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…4950backed Yes8c24,244$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+82.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes1c23,729$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.85635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x511b…be35backed Yes4c23,620$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.51450%7 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+111.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes2c23,250$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.34412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2747…8d20backed Yes0c22,533$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x046c…7e24backed Yes4c22,499$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Yes16c20,499$3,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,253.11546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47dc…4342backed Yes11c20,182$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a8…4fffbacked Yes2c20,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x577f…07ebbacked Yes0c19,999$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802512%3 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3925…d2f2backed Yes1c19,833$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.292814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+134.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes4c19,092$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7431241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick23cpaid+85.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes1c18,962$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb43c…29c4backed Yes4c17,777$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1990%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2521…eec7backed Yes6c17,700$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9841723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1545…3599backed Yes2c17,604$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3481338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick12cpaid+95.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8284…86f0backed Yes7c17,042$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.69150%0 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…7260backed Yes1c16,650$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.91729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca41…0616backed Yes7c16,209$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001060%6 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+126.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes10c16,000$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.525347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8371…e96abacked Yes2c15,398$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c15,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c15,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1657618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a6…8651backed Yes9c14,934$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.75156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a3…13a7backed Yes2c14,897$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.982725.9%7 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick6cpaid+168.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes7c14,605$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.358845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c14,478$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.6721831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes1c14,314$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes1c14,272$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.96137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9360…8dd7backed Yes1c14,175$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f4…edc5backed Yes5c14,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7401540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42a4…e408backed Yes8c13,699$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x099e…8a25backed Yes3c13,541$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes3c13,318$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.439832.7%32 W · 66 L-14.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7a87…be4cbacked Yes0c13,024$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d49…1067backed Yes2c12,772$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.31612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-37.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes7c12,649$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes7c12,514$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.736023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df1…ea12backed Yes8c12,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f91…fd4cbacked Yes8c12,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes1c12,345$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.885246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x30c2…ac2fbacked Yes2c12,100$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes17c12,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002740.7%11 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes14c11,996$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.3114039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7a98…e1e2backed Yes3c11,805$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.93812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x806e…07e4backed Yes5c11,560$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb491…c600backed Yes6c11,180$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa25c…6430backed Yes5c10,875$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ae…e694backed Yes2c10,800$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f7…e7a5backed Yes2c10,527$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718f…bedebacked Yes0c10,313$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick12cpaid+217.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.