TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,187,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,948,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,187,886 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes1c691,470$3,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,968.832524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c267,777$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.198610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes0c199,029$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.823633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes1c180,614$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.69147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c176,999$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.9819119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes1c98,340$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.84180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x806e…07e4backed Yes2c93,105$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15eb…86b3backed Yes1c76,955$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c72,114$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.4814039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x292d…036abacked Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b13…ee28backed Yes0c52,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6987…8ea0backed Yes1c50,500$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd024…dc82backed Yes1c49,223$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes1c45,567$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.66456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c43,195$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.487618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes1c40,084$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3706132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes1c36,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes0c35,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes0c34,687$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.75430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7881…f022backed Yes1c33,873$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes1c32,268$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.342619.2%5 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick7cpaid+212.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c32,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1178817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x378b…4ce4backed Yes2c31,188$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa54d…f1f6backed Yes2c28,656$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes1c28,135$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20116417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes1c25,381$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c24,896$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c24,265$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4817111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8284…86f0backed Yes2c24,232$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500150%0 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes1c23,367$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b17…3117backed Yes2c22,222$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes1c22,222$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.11370%0 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1cf…18aebacked Yes0c20,222$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes1c20,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.91816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+149.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes1c18,189$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes1c18,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.63810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x932c…2951backed Yes1c17,136$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes1c16,196$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes1c16,093$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5610313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dfa…9c89backed Yes0c14,203$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.016752.2%35 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…134dbacked Yes0c14,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-55.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes2c14,026$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe2a…7962backed Yes1c13,900$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes0c13,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes2c12,816$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.59130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x289d…1a67backed Yes1c12,692$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes1c12,065$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x776f…0478backed Yes3c11,566$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3981233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08d6…9b3ebacked Yes3c10,400$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d73…2345backed Yes1c10,381$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.851020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%0 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd99c…463cbacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d9…fe22backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a4…27cfbacked Yes2c10,000$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0f…d707backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2028…4f5ebacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa601…cad0backed Yes2c9,411$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.676618.2%12 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…b97fbacked Yes0c9,115$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96e…6bb9backed Yes1c9,091$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f92…a08ebacked Yes1c9,017$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes1c9,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.52810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c1…bec7backed Yes2c8,636$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe337…0a13backed Yes2c8,515$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2342…6439backed Yes1c8,506$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…b890backed Yes1c8,334$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes1c8,326$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes1c8,090$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e5…8273backed Yes1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d82…3754backed Yes1c8,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-81.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes2c8,000$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-81.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes2c7,755$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.25433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes1c7,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.526423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x840e…43b9backed Yes1c7,295$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes2c7,252$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0915541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9227…ab78backed Yes2c7,100$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b1a…3852backed Yes1c7,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1980…9736backed Yes1c6,980$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes1c6,667$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40392.6%1 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick12cpaid-96.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd62f…9c75backed Yes1c6,456$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2795…42c9backed Yes0c6,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412b…85b2backed Yes1c6,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb374…d0c7backed Yes0c6,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes2c6,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4e…2ff5backed Yes1c5,556$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes1c5,200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.63016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes5c5,000$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.595431.5%17 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+61.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes2c5,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.437541.3%31 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes2c5,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7542120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb206…1313backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113b…7afdbacked Yes1c5,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a1…5c8dbacked Yes1c4,985$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c7…5069backed Yes1c4,950$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe15c…ffdfbacked Yes2c4,839$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77e1…ac37backed Yes1c4,755$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf4…f505backed Yes1c4,712$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes1c4,700$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.54634.8%16 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+104.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes2c4,552$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.79684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed Yes1c4,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.876111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83b0…aa12backed Yes0c4,393$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.57287.1%2 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.