Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c39ac9cc39be478f9fc273f78ad5e61cef5869f5b87860cc3f439a9abfa2648
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,187,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,948,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,187,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes | 1c | 691,470$3,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,968.83 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 267,777$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.19 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 0c | 199,029$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.82 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 1c | 180,614$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.69 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 176,999$2,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.98 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 98,340$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.84 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806e…07e4backed Yes | 2c | 93,105$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15eb…86b3backed Yes | 1c | 76,955$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 1c | 72,114$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.48 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…036abacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…ee28backed Yes | 0c | 52,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…8ea0backed Yes | 1c | 50,500$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…dc82backed Yes | 1c | 49,223$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 1c | 45,567$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.66 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 43,195$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 1c | 40,084$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes | 1c | 36,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 0c | 34,687$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…f022backed Yes | 1c | 33,873$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 1c | 32,268$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378b…4ce4backed Yes | 2c | 31,188$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…f1f6backed Yes | 2c | 28,656$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 28,135$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 1c | 25,381$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 24,896$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 24,265$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.48 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…86f0backed Yes | 2c | 24,232$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes | 1c | 23,367$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b17…3117backed Yes | 2c | 22,222$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 1c | 22,222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…18aebacked Yes | 0c | 20,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes | 1c | 18,189$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 1c | 18,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932c…2951backed Yes | 1c | 17,136$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes | 1c | 16,196$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 16,093$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed Yes | 0c | 14,203$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…134dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 2c | 14,026$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2a…7962backed Yes | 1c | 13,900$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,816$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.59 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…1a67backed Yes | 1c | 12,692$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 12,065$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…0478backed Yes | 3c | 11,566$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08d6…9b3ebacked Yes | 3c | 10,400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…2345backed Yes | 1c | 10,381$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…463cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…fe22backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…27cfbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…d707backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…4f5ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 2c | 9,411$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.67 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…b97fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…6bb9backed Yes | 1c | 9,091$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f92…a08ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,017$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…bec7backed Yes | 2c | 8,636$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…0a13backed Yes | 2c | 8,515$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…6439backed Yes | 1c | 8,506$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…b890backed Yes | 1c | 8,334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 1c | 8,326$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…8273backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…3754backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 2c | 7,755$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…43b9backed Yes | 1c | 7,295$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 2c | 7,252$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…ab78backed Yes | 2c | 7,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…3852backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…9736backed Yes | 1c | 6,980$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes | 1c | 6,667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…9c75backed Yes | 1c | 6,456$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…42c9backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412b…85b2backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb374…d0c7backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4e…2ff5backed Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 1c | 5,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.59 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb206…1313backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…7afdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…5c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,985$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…5069backed Yes | 1c | 4,950$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15c…ffdfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,839$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…ac37backed Yes | 1c | 4,755$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf4…f505backed Yes | 1c | 4,712$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,552$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…aa12backed Yes | 0c | 4,393$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -87%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.