TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,022,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,905,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,022,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,288 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63e3…f341backed Yes0c1,838,121$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.1210549.5%52 W · 53 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes0c1,724,290$8,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,266.523240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c456,605$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.428610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes2c367,279$6,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,027.2213823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ac…9334backed Yes3c250,000$6,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,849.99933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+95.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb54…5202backed Yes2c226,063$5,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,506714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes2c216,893$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5506132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes1c198,000$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440.65430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51c9…e4a8backed Yes3c171,836$4,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,445.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes2c123,512$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.334420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes1c123,505$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.383810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes2c118,109$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.871414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes3c117,958$3,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,528.56456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes2c100,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6502524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes2c99,874$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.8110417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c95,458$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.687311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c94,396$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes1c90,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0802512%3 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+116.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes3c81,555$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.594835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cef…3bd1backed Yes6c77,054$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,995.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ec…8240backed Yes23c70,000$15,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,989.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick22cpaid+221.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8e…d77abacked Yes15c66,687$9,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,984560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+80.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c65,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92ad…9807backed Yes2c64,943$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick14cpaid+243.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes1c54,623$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.6813441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff8…547fbacked Yes0c50,510$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490c…0ed3backed Yes2c46,638$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.68728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick10cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes2c45,878$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.32254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc8…7f4bbacked Yes1c45,300$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.52119%4 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x555e…6589backed Yes0c41,500$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f2…f661backed Yes2c40,418$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c40,000$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7551128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd024…dc82backed Yes1c36,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3832…1527backed Yes2c35,000$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b5e…7abbbacked Yes2c33,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes2c32,118$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.4412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc954…ee14backed Yes1c31,355$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c31,315$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.9926423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca38…c70ebacked Yes2c30,609$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.49110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd26…0747backed Yes2c30,023$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.06425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes3c29,797$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.129832.7%32 W · 66 L-14.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfce1…98e3backed Yes1c29,542$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.941533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aad…c6dabacked Yes1c28,587$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15560%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes2c27,789$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9431…015fbacked Yes10c27,503$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.14560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick21cpaid+103.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes1c27,013$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.273633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52c3…1e79backed Yes4c26,557$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes6c25,000$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.7115232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9877…b493backed Yes12c24,267$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7f…09efbacked Yes2c23,920$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes2c23,489$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.298818.2%16 W · 72 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes1c23,000$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276270%0 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332f…1ee8backed Yes11c22,995$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes3c22,450$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.3648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dea…e49fbacked Yes7c21,531$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.915151%26 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b4e…2ff5backed Yes2c21,308$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…385abacked Yes1c21,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes2c20,947$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes3c20,819$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5781915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf704…e4f7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes9c19,992$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.31827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf453…2547backed Yes2c19,802$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.621216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0384…36edbacked Yes3c19,384$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4354…89a9backed Yes1c19,114$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.622512%3 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes1c18,182$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200205%1 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+257%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes2c18,076$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.4212544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c18,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23519119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1add…924abacked Yes21c17,203$3,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,582.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes2c16,660$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.1914129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd1…4649backed Yes0c16,237$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes3c15,752$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.788125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes1c15,611$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.954938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Yes9c15,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4103915.4%6 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e57…fc66backed Yes12c14,433$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.031631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+102.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb6…c7f1backed Yes1c14,286$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a4…e658backed Yes2c13,868$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.02290%0 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8f…b7a2backed Yes1c13,817$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.98933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+790.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcff…4788backed Yes1c13,758$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7771…1407backed Yes2c13,717$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.591118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes9c13,716$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.7515541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc77…ea7cbacked Yes1c13,473$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…9e6dbacked Yes4c13,434$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes2c13,321$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2905623.2%13 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+57.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2362…4cd9backed Yes1c13,087$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c13,075$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes1c13,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes1c13,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8815626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37be…d876backed Yes3c12,917$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.022917.2%5 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b33…9a34backed Yes2c12,675$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc033…c3e2backed Yes2c12,506$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes1c12,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes10c12,455$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.0614039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x83f8…d9f1backed Yes11c12,260$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a3…13a7backed Yes1c12,154$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.52725.9%7 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick6cpaid+168.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes1c12,006$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.88180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8f…94d5backed Yes21c12,001$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5051233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f4…2bc2backed Yes1c12,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad14…bf69backed Yes17c11,899$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9991050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes2c11,504$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.18920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc487…ab80backed Yes1c11,461$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1452556%14 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.21per pick35cpaid+31.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.