TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,599,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,662,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,599,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes1c300,002$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200.032524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes1c277,345$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.282218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c249,815$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.538610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8005…d004backed Yes0c222,949$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.81520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes1c186,385$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.013810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes1c183,937$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.36132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes1c175,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes1c163,663$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.764010%4 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd143…3365backed Yes0c140,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes1c126,115$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.12430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c120,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2407618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb63…9097backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df0…e335backed Yes1c93,394$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes1c72,499$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.169736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71cb…2516backed Yes1c68,120$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-40.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes0c66,882$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.47180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c61,183$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.317311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes1c52,236$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.315433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50240%0 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes0c40,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes1c39,683$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4505437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c39,313$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.17456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes3c37,768$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.72528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes1c36,914$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.1410313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cca…ef94backed Yes0c36,882$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes1c35,513$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…c70ebacked Yes1c35,201$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.42110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c34,226$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3519119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c33,744$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.8417111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c32,588$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.768817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes0c32,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes0c27,846$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.953315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes1c27,529$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72b…36d6backed Yes1c25,291$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190f…01f3backed Yes0c23,426$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.71728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes1c23,136$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.813917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes1c23,033$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.23185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes4c22,693$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.911915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd652…ca4ebacked Yes5c21,678$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cb…120cbacked Yes2c20,811$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abe…70b7backed Yes1c20,061$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…5cc3backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-86%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b17…3117backed Yes3c19,611$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa55…c6aebacked Yes1c19,007$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc30…e5ddbacked Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf404…be62backed Yes0c16,625$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes1c16,012$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6e…8931backed Yes1c15,385$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412b…85b2backed Yes1c15,111$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120140%0 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x113b…7afdbacked Yes1c14,269$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf93…e5e9backed Yes2c13,992$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes1c13,676$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0616417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes4c12,502$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-58.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8d…52f1backed Yes2c12,415$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-36%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes1c12,384$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.38626.7%23 W · 63 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+42.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes4c12,274$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.837732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc8…7f4bbacked Yes1c12,000$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1372119%4 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes1c11,162$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.04260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda9d…9843backed Yes3c11,018$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2747…8d20backed Yes0c10,833$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes1c10,633$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e45…cbe1backed Yes1c10,354$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e2a…0bbebacked Yes3c10,027$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec4d…3b11backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd74d…ebdfbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes1c9,900$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-87.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c9,891$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee94…1396backed Yes3c9,543$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes2c9,015$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8215541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes1c9,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes1c8,941$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7f…9012backed Yes0c8,335$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd4…a976backed Yes1c8,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x114e…a9d4backed Yes2c8,329$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes1c7,672$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c7,014$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c4…f9fcbacked Yes1c6,610$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac4…448dbacked Yes2c6,422$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick6cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes3c6,420$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.242917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes1c6,400$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.62810.7%3 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6910…8b61backed Yes1c6,245$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes1c6,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ce7…ea15backed Yes2c5,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…b564backed Yes1c5,824$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.942714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa601…cad0backed Yes1c5,800$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.86618.2%12 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b2…4897backed Yes2c5,625$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90254%1 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed2f…8f01backed Yes2c5,624$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x052e…de9abacked Yes1c5,407$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.36293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes3c5,292$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.21827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55e1…e46ebacked Yes0c5,286$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b68…f2e2backed Yes0c5,249$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes1c5,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6542120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed Yes1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705151%26 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62c9…c519backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c7…c2f8backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a81…4682backed Yes3c4,980$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.37100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a3…13a7backed Yes0c4,974$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.052725.9%7 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick6cpaid+168.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.