Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b02efe53e631ada84681303fd66d79ad615f3d2b6a28b4633d43d935f89af58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,213,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,525,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,213,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 7,453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 1,195,141$740,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454,775.6 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 51c | 1,169,676$592,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592,740.72 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 42c | 481,964$203,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203,312.95 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 60c | 423,544$255,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167,578.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 56c | 376,566$211,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165,176.14 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 62c | 366,917$227,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227,833.69 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 44c | 350,871$153,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197,185.7 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…28b3backed No | 42c | 295,000$123,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123,882.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…10f7backed Yes | 58c | 293,511$170,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122,586.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 40c | 292,615$116,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,875.05 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 59c | 276,348$163,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112,909.19 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 46c | 254,775$117,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117,924.01 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 49c | 239,620$116,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123,092.11 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 43c | 233,464$99,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,881.27 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 54c | 224,238$121,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103,040.86 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed No | 64c | 213,428$135,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,894.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 60c | 207,157$125,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,061.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 40c | 173,061$69,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,955.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…52cfbacked No | 59c | 170,307$100,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,369.38 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -10.4wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 53c | 152,324$81,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,191.73 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 49c | 146,427$72,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,308.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 46c | 146,312$67,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,197.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607f…592cbacked Yes | 47c | 139,296$65,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,188.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 43c | 135,986$58,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,665.44 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 51c | 126,082$64,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,530.13 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 36c | 125,877$45,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,130.5 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 42c | 125,000$53,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,950 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 48c | 122,400$58,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,935.34 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed No | 40c | 121,504$48,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,601.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec7…35c0backed Yes | 46c | 115,864$53,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,266.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 62c | 115,432$71,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,671.96 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 43c | 113,164$48,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,460.8 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 43c | 109,303$47,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,093.88 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 55c | 107,739$59,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,707.09 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 48c | 106,244$50,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,493.82 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed No | 47c | 103,467$48,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,731.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 60c | 102,020$60,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,170.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…5ebdbacked Yes | 59c | 101,310$60,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,035.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 55c | 100,408$54,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,986.97 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 44c | 100,044$44,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,902.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…6356backed No | 42c | 100,000$42,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,999.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…441bbacked Yes | 47c | 98,879$46,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,000.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +128%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed No | 39c | 97,158$37,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,626.72 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 61c | 92,184$56,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,951.91 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 44c | 90,553$40,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,128.51 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce2…782fbacked Yes | 59c | 87,794$51,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,123.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +342.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…e25fbacked Yes | 37c | 84,615$31,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,057.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 44c | 82,037$36,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,869.99 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 62c | 78,654$48,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,814.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 63cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 39c | 78,171$30,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,183.18 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 45c | 77,532$35,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,430.87 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…2539backed No | 40c | 77,500$31,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 42c | 73,489$30,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,570.69 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 39c | 73,063$28,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,752.84 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 19c | 72,833$13,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,501.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…504cbacked Yes | 58c | 72,137$41,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,240.1 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +7.3wins | +0.43per pick | 51cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes | 63c | 69,602$43,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,740.23 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…afd4backed No | 45c | 69,498$31,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,273.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 47c | 68,836$32,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,579.77 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b19…98f5backed No | 53c | 67,436$35,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,904.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…40d7backed Yes | 57c | 63,771$36,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,421.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…3e43backed Yes | 60c | 63,100$38,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,083.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +316.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 44c | 60,447$26,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,113.98 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…1276backed Yes | 53c | 59,667$31,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,804.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 49c | 58,885$28,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,937.6 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 58c | 57,550$33,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,052.94 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 44c | 55,454$24,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,889.78 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…da4abacked Yes | 37c | 55,103$20,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,708.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 45c | 53,848$24,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,461.92 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 40c | 53,115$21,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,236.14 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…29bfbacked Yes | 38c | 52,144$19,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,294.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…509bbacked Yes | 69c | 52,051$35,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,135.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…8792backed Yes | 62c | 51,449$32,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,448.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…5734backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…9b4bbacked No | 37c | 50,000$18,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…c729backed No | 39c | 49,964$19,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,570 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 40c | 49,107$19,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,651.65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…426fbacked No | 0c | 48,801$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 52c | 48,241$24,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,880.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…0d2abacked Yes | 62c | 47,816$29,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,947.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No | 40c | 47,549$18,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,940.72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…0ec5backed No | 38c | 46,345$17,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,612.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 39c | 45,735$18,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,686.19 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…8a07backed No | 47c | 45,000$21,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,249.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…5806backed No | 58c | 44,828$25,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,850.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed Yes | 62c | 44,692$27,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,983.12 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…c01abacked No | 39c | 44,536$17,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,194.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -7.7wins | -0.52per pick | 58cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…bb08backed No | 38c | 44,172$16,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,982.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 37c | 43,500$16,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,324.36 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 59c | 43,244$25,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,716.59 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 27c | 42,218$11,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,221.09 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 43c | 41,634$18,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,081.57 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 46c | 41,633$19,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,244.75 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -9.6wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 39c | 40,501$15,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,779.39 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c59…c5cdbacked Yes | 40c | 40,000$16,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,999.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 49c | 39,679$19,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,379.37 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…6e81backed No | 47c | 38,926$18,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,469.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…7917backed Yes | 59c | 38,542$22,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,792.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 53c | 35,775$19,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,678.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…9b78backed No | 62c | 35,716$21,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,976.33 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.