TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,250,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,374,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,250,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53e5…6177backed Yes2c720,138$10,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,899.0313823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes0c360,820$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.388610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x593f…9f89backed Yes1c286,547$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0b…4ff6backed Yes2c185,713$3,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,961.343240.6%13 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.20per pick21cpaid+100.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c172,915$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.347311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb54…5202backed Yes2c164,375$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.05714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick5cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f6…15c4backed Yes0c163,468$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.47837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes2c157,780$2,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,951.492512%3 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid+116.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b0…cc00backed Yes0c155,153$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb728…1271backed Yes0c154,411$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.41475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+94%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69a8…aba9backed Yes0c153,863$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde29…563bbacked Yes0c153,609$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33ac…9334backed Yes1c150,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+95.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes0c148,966$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.971154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x372f…5833backed Yes0c143,575$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1232…b955backed Yes0c133,615$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+75.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Yes10c124,704$12,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,009.481546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes2c115,382$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8406132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x29a5…b78bbacked Yes1c101,800$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6e…8931backed Yes1c97,446$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.48130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed Yes1c96,938$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.694820.8%10 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd024…dc82backed Yes1c90,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed3…b19ebacked Yes1c84,489$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.862524%6 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick10cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes0c80,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c78,582$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.39456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes11c75,897$8,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,061.8635631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a25…217cbacked Yes0c73,031$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c5…e50fbacked Yes0c72,550$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes1c70,206$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.64180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes1c70,170$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.28200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes0c70,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bd15backed Yes1c69,609$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409205%1 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+257%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb654…e210backed Yes2c67,718$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes2c63,341$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.02120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes1c60,390$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.074420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080f…077abacked Yes3c57,321$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.71030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes2c55,327$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.52430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes1c55,000$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6784920.4%10 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd387…a51abacked Yes1c54,564$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick3cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a2…fda0backed Yes1c52,200$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.880%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3832…1527backed Yes2c50,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507618.4%14 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cef…3bd1backed Yes20c49,368$9,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,995.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c47,970$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.5843212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes2c46,208$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.74025%10 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes7c45,391$3,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,177.381414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes4c44,154$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.215433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51c9…e4a8backed Yes4c41,988$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3305…31dabacked Yes12c40,795$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes25c40,234$9,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,985.441118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick44cpaid-52.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2d7…312cbacked Yes21c40,149$8,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,609.541145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+79.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes10c39,985$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0504513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e0…016abacked Yes1c39,780$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes1c39,424$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a9…c2b5backed Yes5c38,261$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes1c37,737$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.33633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8f2…f661backed Yes1c37,664$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x313d…4b1abacked Yes17c36,358$6,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,116.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes0c35,069$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.12175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed Yes7c32,916$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.645728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes5c32,684$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.83911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes0c30,049$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.38240%0 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes9c29,957$2,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.84633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes2c28,417$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56a2…9d4bbacked Yes9c28,309$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,547.7270%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes18c28,000$5,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,113.222045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes4c27,800$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.685437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x772e…2758backed Yes2c27,580$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f3…c7e9backed Yes1c27,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+337.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1aa…5a8fbacked Yes18c27,359$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes2c27,114$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c27,000$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4531128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes8c26,598$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.854835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x20b9…edcbbacked Yes3c25,902$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-31%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6195…4570backed Yes0c25,409$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695246.2%24 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xed5a…c744backed Yes10c25,206$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.152040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x557e…5007backed Yes1c25,059$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.656546.2%30 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+92.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e3f…d953backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes22c25,000$5,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5564524.4%11 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes12c22,998$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,847.653917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes1c22,570$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310270%0 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb194…285fbacked Yes1c22,383$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc622…bbedbacked Yes12c21,656$2,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,602850%4 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+378.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab05…e30fbacked Yes9c21,489$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+133.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bb6…c7f1backed Yes5c20,700$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e34…c876backed Yes7c20,613$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.014320.9%9 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes2c20,341$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.5210513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb5…4f02backed Yes2c20,144$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid-17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d6e…670abacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick2cpaid+635.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c19,577$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb788…2833backed Yes2c18,716$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda40…8142backed Yes8c18,108$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.06825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee9…56f5backed Yes1c18,017$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.2137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a9…ee87backed Yes1c17,689$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick8cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes7c17,346$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.4548923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e0a…0fb8backed Yes1c17,208$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd624…a0f8backed Yes12c16,440$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0105234.6%18 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes3c16,146$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.4825518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd5b…7ae7backed Yes4c16,076$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690850%4 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+255.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes1c15,221$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.