Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bbdeb8773a1470ba1053959a446bb0912b38f6091c8794583612bfa76a81a15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,750,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,411,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,750,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 162,269$4,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,325.58 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 2c | 146,000$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 3c | 124,948$3,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,737.87 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 113,207$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.58 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 9c | 110,467$9,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,582.22 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 3c | 100,000$3,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,447.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 6c | 100,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.98 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes | 2c | 81,796$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 3c | 81,776$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,660.19 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 4c | 81,548$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865.6 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…cbffbacked Yes | 3c | 80,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 10cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 75,422$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.68 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…2dd5backed Yes | 1c | 65,717$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…a014backed No | 76c | 65,576$50,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,575.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 17c | 65,525$11,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,224.43 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x81ec…5a36backed Yes | 5c | 54,865$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 53,639$8,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,175.08 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 3c | 51,008$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.54 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…ebd3backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…48fcbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 48,905$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.1 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 47,603$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.25 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 1c | 47,000$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…2bfcbacked Yes | 1c | 44,884$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 44,694$5,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,143.25 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 11c | 44,301$4,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,669.28 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 2c | 44,130$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.11 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 2c | 43,864$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.71 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 4c | 42,683$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.3 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 1c | 40,322$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 39,585$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.9 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 38,903$5,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.66 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 38,628$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.67 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 6c | 37,841$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,419.54 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 2c | 36,972$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.45 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7964…f585backed Yes | 24c | 36,650$8,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,940.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 35,800$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a2…6200backed Yes | 3c | 33,412$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…dc82backed Yes | 1c | 32,599$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9783backed Yes | 1c | 31,848$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…f86bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,050$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 30,531$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.05 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 30,526$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…aababacked Yes | 6c | 30,000$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682b…59d8backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.97 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 2c | 29,783$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.13 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 12c | 29,736$3,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.41 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes | 7c | 28,734$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 10c | 28,603$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 3c | 27,862$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.01 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 26,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…c95abacked Yes | 1c | 25,871$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 1c | 25,568$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 4c | 25,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 74c | 24,794$18,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,326.31 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes | 1c | 23,690$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Yes | 27c | 22,822$6,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,256.8 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…423ebacked Yes | 4c | 22,688$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 27c | 22,552$6,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,083.02 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…5cc3backed Yes | 1c | 22,436$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…69c5backed Yes | 4c | 21,520$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.36 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 21,250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 2c | 21,181$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.23 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 2c | 21,071$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.92 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…fac3backed Yes | 1c | 20,949$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…0372backed Yes | 26c | 20,685$5,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,450.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…c596backed Yes | 22c | 20,570$4,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,498.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 4c | 20,183$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.97 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…f938backed No | 78c | 20,000$15,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,454.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 73c | 19,942$14,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,296.68 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 2c | 19,238$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.61 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes | 1c | 18,378$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 8c | 18,339$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.84 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 4c | 18,224$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.81 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…3ce3backed Yes | 3c | 18,206$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.09 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 20c | 17,553$3,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,583.13 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 78c | 17,500$13,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,877.98 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…5038backed Yes | 4c | 17,473$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…fa91backed Yes | 1c | 17,167$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…08e7backed Yes | 9c | 17,069$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…adefbacked Yes | 6c | 16,943$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc940…02d2backed Yes | 2c | 16,568$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…ba73backed Yes | 19c | 16,499$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 16,419$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.03 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed Yes | 30c | 16,305$4,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,887.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…dfc4backed Yes | 5c | 16,237$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 15,809$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.6 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 72c | 15,689$11,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,422.87 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 66c | 15,459$10,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,231.59 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…3d5abacked Yes | 7c | 15,315$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…a2adbacked Yes | 30c | 15,189$4,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,543.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…11d5backed Yes | 1c | 15,120$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4430backed Yes | 20c | 15,086$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 15,000$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 77c | 14,467$11,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,387.31 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 11c | 14,155$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.46 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 20c | 14,145$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.03 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…e67ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,974$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8064…e50cbacked Yes | 25c | 13,819$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.