TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdd5c…0c2a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-59.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$22,767Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$11,581.27
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,154.88
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,189.94
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,100
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.61
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,053Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,053.18
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$405
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$458Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$457.8
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.04
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$400.4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,052Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$389.1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$274.8
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$6,182Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+57.2%+$3,535.38
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20,034Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20,034.29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$8,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$8,000
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$10,697Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10,696.51
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,027Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,027.12
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10,061Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10,061.02
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$5,155Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$5,155.45
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Squid launch a token by March 31, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.15
Will Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$306.41
Will Squid launch a token by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.56
Will Squid launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.25
Will Squid launch a token by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$557Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$557.15
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+902.4%+$4,208.57
Will Paradex launch a token by September 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$12.59
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$21.95
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$8,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$8,880.06
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14,663Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14,662.73
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$4,272Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$4,272.24
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,251Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$2,251.4
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$4,464Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$4,463.82
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$6,313Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+66.7%+$4,208.86
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,453Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$4,453.28
All 15 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$500
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,950Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$550
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$34.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$4,080
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.