TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,070,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,017,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,070,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e7d…c0c1backed No38c103,800$39,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,350.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…19b8backed No37c101,200$37,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,342.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4936…d146backed No26c66,100$17,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,450.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x881d…6e3bbacked No30c56,200$16,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,635.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa20b…e4d1backed Yes61c27,200$16,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,6081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab2f…179abacked Yes63c26,700$16,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,852.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7200…c494backed Yes64c26,600$16,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,655.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad30…6e8bbacked Yes63c26,250$16,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,686.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c7…304bbacked Yes61c25,700$15,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc503…312abacked Yes70c24,650$17,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,296.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe28a…aef9backed Yes63c24,300$15,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,966.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x056a…d45bbacked Yes63c24,300$15,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,063.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7364…de04backed Yes74c24,200$17,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,388.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b9…a61abacked Yes63c23,950$15,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,837.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc737…d217backed Yes70c22,600$15,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,689.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a94…6d7bbacked Yes74c21,450$15,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,662.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0811…bb04backed Yes74c20,450$15,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,398.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d2e…9f22backed No1c15,280$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No1c15,213$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c10,577$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.33631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f24…0bd0backed No2c9,857$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade9…954abacked Yes70c8,950$6,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No7c6,894$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.575722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No13c5,897$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.862638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No1c5,763$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c53…8c30backed No0c5,020$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No6c4,607$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.17180%0 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No4c3,458$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.487518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No9c3,378$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes32c3,362$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.0210137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e3…aaf2backed Yes77c3,334$2,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c2,935$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.825327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c2,646$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.581074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No16c2,582$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.61039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9e…27b9backed No2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes65c2,175$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.278224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes17c2,079$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.395038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No1c2,067$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.37535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes3c1,979$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.829326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No26c1,934$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.711844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63b8…7af5backed No6c1,686$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b2…7d94backed No1c1,665$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked Yes49c1,608$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.312560%15 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd680…be75backed No1c1,545$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94a…0ff1backed No26c1,536$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.382646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes48c1,310$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.1626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1baa…6eb3backed Yes12c1,300$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.19728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+156.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes13c1,220$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.184117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1a…be9fbacked No6c1,196$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a6…e375backed No8c1,181$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8331…4940backed No47c1,174$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No27c1,159$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.4850%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c1,106$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.071302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No16c1,100$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.33633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed No20c1,088$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No1c1,085$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No8c1,066$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.68440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No8c1,059$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa74b…31b1backed No10c999.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked No10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes9c999.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.5211530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No10c980.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0511840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No4c979.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.815217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes58c958.53$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.182857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes59c912.58$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.27843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9de…215bbacked No4c910$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes49c901.78$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.738549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes7c900.48$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.895843.1%25 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x29d6…1388backed No5c874.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes71c834.76$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.594348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes61c827.99$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…c229backed No16c827.67$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…8d0dbacked Yes70c819.46$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.463100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed No25c808.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d25…eafebacked No4c788.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No12c768.53$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.42128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b6…7ffbbacked No5c761$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6fb…71efbacked No6c756$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9415…6397backed No13c755.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ee…5e2bbacked No4c740.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c712.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+97.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d7…2968backed No14c700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…4216backed Yes72c697.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No26c681.9$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.111250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked No41c664.65$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.081241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick17cpaid+187.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes79c656.83$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.574553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefaa…8716backed Yes12c650$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+306.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4b9…0aaebacked Yes12c650$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+306.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe64…190ebacked No30c645.1$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda81…ccdabacked No24c641.86$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed No15c636.05$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.47520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe201…f3eebacked Yes41c617.07$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.611435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7100…e693backed No18c609.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b5…d249backed Yes4c605.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.816830.9%21 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x941f…edbdbacked No14c595.74$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff64…3d67backed Yes69c593.52$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bf…773bbacked No19c588.8$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked No24c553.64$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+316.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc1e…08f0backed No11c547.36$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.