TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$592,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$533,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $592,808 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c19,244$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes2c15,123$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.04120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6715…eb49backed Yes3c13,000$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…fe00backed Yes1c9,703$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…5b80backed Yes5c8,013$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes1c7,813$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2650%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c7,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb0…b7c9backed Yes1c7,030$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3868…cc48backed Yes1c7,030$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes1c7,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c5,220$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.791414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-72.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bf…773bbacked Yes6c5,021$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes1c4,900$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.811645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes5c4,858$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25026238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e85…80c1backed Yes7c4,348$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes3c3,793$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.014214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-65.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,746$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.455327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee7…17b0backed Yes5c3,646$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.97922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f8…ed3ebacked Yes1c3,481$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes3c3,382$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,197$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c06…1543backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+438%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2708…1fa1backed Yes3c2,915$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c2,810$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.371074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b0…4e01backed Yes4c2,763$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c0a…a2c5backed Yes4c2,673$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c2,579$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x881c…68afbacked Yes4c2,485$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec2…5a6dbacked Yes3c2,242$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed4…7f61backed Yes4c2,221$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c2,200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes3c2,178$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.424045%18 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a3…ced2backed Yes3c2,107$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6bf…6a05backed Yes3c2,088$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked Yes3c1,980$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…4a05backed Yes3c1,904$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e6…5f55backed Yes3c1,854$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,810$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.921302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b2…1563backed Yes5c1,786$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c0…3b4ebacked Yes2c1,784$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af0…e3c6backed Yes1c1,767$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ae…c0b9backed Yes4c1,734$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc406…ba02backed Yes7c1,733$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.57812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…09b6backed Yes2c1,713$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd187…2cfabacked Yes2c1,706$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde5…fd2bbacked Yes4c1,697$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec18…1596backed Yes2c1,623$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e0…b25abacked Yes3c1,571$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f65…3924backed Yes3c1,559$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes3c1,550$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.681241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick24cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes3c1,538$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.46180%0 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97cb…480ebacked Yes4c1,537$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f5f…1cf7backed Yes4c1,534$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a1…5645backed Yes1c1,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6959…5575backed Yes3c1,500$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6095…db53backed Yes3c1,463$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a08…0eecbacked Yes2c1,440$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-73.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671e…bcc6backed Yes4c1,405$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed Yes1c1,400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.166944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e55…c09dbacked Yes2c1,349$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes5c1,345$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.091010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-86.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes4c1,320$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465a…8aacbacked Yes3c1,280$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeaa…a226backed Yes4c1,258$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a3…5655backed Yes4c1,257$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8903…0dc2backed Yes2c1,250$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.49911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61bd…6563backed Yes4c1,245$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…26d1backed Yes10c1,242$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.13911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes4c1,236$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506420.3%13 W · 51 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d2…e5bdbacked Yes3c1,234$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3587…9981backed Yes3c1,188$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…7304backed Yes4c1,167$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0149…c177backed Yes4c1,161$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c6…eaefbacked Yes4c1,161$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d9…5b13backed Yes4c1,157$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc46…2c94backed Yes4c1,145$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f66…e352backed Yes4c1,127$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1476…50c3backed Yes2c1,124$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9c…c822backed Yes4c1,094$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8012…7833backed Yes4c1,077$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896a…f878backed Yes1c1,062$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c1,033$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb90…c9a0backed Yes2c1,030$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591f…945bbacked Yes2c1,026$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.872740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes3c993.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…d6cdbacked Yes4c966.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7211…7a87backed Yes4c949$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed78…4ab0backed Yes4c937.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c906.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4903…0242backed Yes4c901$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff5…ce12backed Yes4c877$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc41…be2abacked Yes4c767$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…8552backed Yes4c759$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ea…1a3ebacked Yes3c732.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c722.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7734…4193backed Yes4c720.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dd…35f0backed Yes4c700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Yes2c670.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.115147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.