Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d54eb5eac2cee8f595f3097c65da7d07f8ab5dee63d7c0c6883eb70e1e9af30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,873,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,873,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 4,236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 12c | 749,316$89,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,188.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 13c | 613,804$78,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,700.71 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 7c | 466,245$32,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,312.64 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 6c | 364,857$22,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,435.68 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 6c | 336,601$20,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,906.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 11c | 314,372$33,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,825.46 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 268,030$25,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,375.31 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 78c | 258,545$202,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,900.61 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 1c | 241,599$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked Yes | 7c | 229,466$15,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,095 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 10c | 229,086$22,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,057.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes | 15c | 229,074$34,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,361.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Yes | 20c | 227,310$46,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,131.82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 8c | 212,237$17,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,549.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 2c | 209,997$4,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,287.26 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 16c | 198,155$31,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,595.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 22c | 183,081$40,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,555.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed Yes | 4c | 178,083$7,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,239 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 2c | 172,419$2,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…108ebacked Yes | 9c | 170,644$15,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,499.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…b6f5backed Yes | 8c | 170,400$13,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,530.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 167,207$7,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,390.87 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…53f7backed Yes | 15c | 158,558$24,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,036.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 14c | 148,800$20,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,258.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes | 12c | 144,605$17,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,471.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 5c | 140,584$6,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,596.95 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 128,600$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcab…e010backed Yes | 20c | 122,006$24,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,075 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…8f97backed No | 77c | 117,148$90,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,906.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed No | 77c | 113,962$87,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,990.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 13c | 109,767$14,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,405.83 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 9c | 107,731$10,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,133.09 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 5c | 107,505$5,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,528.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 7cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 104,743$4,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,955.19 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 23c | 102,839$24,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,141.21 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 12c | 100,000$11,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,559.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…5174backed Yes | 15c | 99,997$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,999.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…bedebacked Yes | 12c | 99,025$11,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,866.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 26c | 97,773$25,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,861.93 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked No | 72c | 96,627$69,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,652.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…39c8backed Yes | 24c | 96,486$23,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,075.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 23c | 94,336$21,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,587.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 11c | 93,634$10,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,761.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1f6abacked Yes | 7c | 89,459$6,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,328.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 14c | 89,442$12,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,821.33 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…0bd5backed Yes | 3c | 88,675$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 79c | 87,381$68,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,746.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…417cbacked Yes | 1c | 86,032$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 10c | 83,664$8,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,265.26 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…6dcbbacked Yes | 3c | 75,391$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…9211backed Yes | 25c | 73,749$18,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,767.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…6e34backed Yes | 14c | 71,388$9,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,994.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 20c | 70,572$14,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,029.1 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa671…7716backed Yes | 4c | 68,097$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 8c | 68,001$5,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,234.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402b…26d1backed Yes | 3c | 67,813$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…7136backed Yes | 2c | 67,526$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…e4dbbacked Yes | 3c | 66,817$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +231%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed No | 78c | 63,359$49,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,034.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…de5cbacked Yes | 16c | 62,375$9,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,980 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…c282backed Yes | 18c | 60,837$11,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,075.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…df92backed No | 80c | 60,627$48,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,381.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 18c | 60,255$10,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,845.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 7c | 59,557$4,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,023.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 24c | 59,286$13,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,995.56 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…4ca9backed Yes | 15c | 58,619$8,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,562.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 15c | 57,819$8,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,672.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…38bebacked Yes | 15c | 57,221$8,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,583.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e85…80c1backed Yes | 14c | 56,852$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 9c | 56,442$4,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,929.96 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bce…b574backed Yes | 13c | 56,124$7,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,564.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 24c | 55,409$13,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,498.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…0693backed Yes | 3c | 55,170$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes | 17c | 53,498$8,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,972.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 51,280$8,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,682.11 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 78c | 51,166$40,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,087.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 6c | 50,866$3,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,045.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes | 25c | 49,527$12,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bde…c946backed Yes | 1c | 49,255$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 20c | 48,628$9,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,827.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes | 15c | 46,615$6,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,828.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 44,718$13,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,748.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4492…0f14backed Yes | 14c | 43,725$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 42,170$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.7 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 41,441$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.36 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,924$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.32 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 14c | 40,483$5,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,728.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed Yes | 21c | 40,255$8,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,604.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…8420backed Yes | 20c | 40,000$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7e…08f9backed Yes | 16c | 39,877$6,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,385.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…1862backed Yes | 6c | 39,872$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…cb2abacked Yes | 7c | 39,355$2,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…e982backed Yes | 13c | 38,462$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 38,236$9,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,463.91 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…ebb5backed No | 75c | 38,000$28,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,500.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…86c6backed Yes | 15c | 37,820$5,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,672.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…c623backed Yes | 10c | 37,604$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 22c | 35,827$7,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,900.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 74c | 35,497$26,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,254.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 18c | 35,448$6,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,395.89 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.